TABLE 32Transition probabilities in manufacturers' models, compared with SHTAC 2007

Health stateRocheSchering-PloughSHTAC17
FromTo
SVRSVRaaa
MortalityLiver disease000
All causeAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
HCVSVRSee Table 33See Table 33
HCVaa0a0
0.025a0.025a
CC0.03700.03700.037
HCC000.00100
MortalityLiver disease000
All causeAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
CCSVR0See Table 33
CCaaa
DC0.0390.0390.039
HCC0.0140.014410.014
MortalityLiver disease00.020
All causeAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
DCDCaa0.039
HCC0.0140.014410.014
LT0.020.0220.02
MortalityLiver disease0.1290.1300.130
All cause0Age-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
HCCHCCaaa
LT00.020
MortalityLiver disease0.4270.5600.43
All cause0Age-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
LTLTaaa
MortalityLiver disease0.2100.1500.150
All cause0Age-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific
Post LTPost LTaaa
MortalityLiver disease0.0570.0570.057
All cause0Age-/sex-specificAge-/sex-specific

CC, compensated cirrhosis; DC, decompensated cirrhosis; LT, liver transplant; post LT, post liver transplant.

a

A default transition and is calculated as the complement of the other transition probabilities for each health state.

From: 5, Economic analysis

Cover of Peginterferon Alfa and Ribavirin for Chronic Hepatitis C in Patients Eligible for Shortened Treatment, Re-Treatment or in HCV/HIV Co-Infection: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation
Peginterferon Alfa and Ribavirin for Chronic Hepatitis C in Patients Eligible for Shortened Treatment, Re-Treatment or in HCV/HIV Co-Infection: A Systematic Review and Economic Evaluation.
Health Technology Assessment, No. 15.17.
Hartwell D, Jones J, Baxter L, et al.
Southampton (UK): NIHR Journals Library; 2011 Apr.
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