Table 10Variables included in probabilistic sensitivity analysis

VariableMeanDistributionStandard errorAB
Skin prick test sensitivity1Uniform0.81
Skin prick test specificity0.661Uniform0.291
IgE blood test sensitivity0.966Uniform0.251
IgE blood test specificity0.624Uniform0.381
Secondary diagnosis sensitivity0.98Uniform0.851
Secondary diagnosis specificity0.98Uniform0.851
Allergy to no allergy0.054258Beta100*5.4394.57
Allergy to minor0.14Beta100*1486
Allergy to major0.000118Beta100000*11.899988
Allergy to dead0.0000012Beta830000*0.996829999
Confirmed allergy to no allergy0.054258Beta100*5.4394.57
Confirmed allergy to minor0.14Beta100*1486
Confirmed allergy to major0.000118Beta100000*11.899988.2
Confirmed allergy to dead0.0000012Beta830000*0.996829999
Quality of life
No allergy0.235Beta
Allergy0.225Beta
Minor0.235Beta
Major0.0815Beta0.052.35926.584
Cost
Secondary diagnosis cost516Gamma386.861.779290.042
Major reaction991Gamma188.1627.73935.726
GP history taking GP appointment time*GP cost per minute=Total
GP appointment time15Uniform515
GP cost per minute3Uniform1.54.5
Skin prick testTotal (((a/b)+(c/200))*i)+(d/b)+(e*f)+(g*h)
Cost of vials (a)17Uniform1234
No. of drops per vial (b)80Uniform60100
Lancet (200) (c)12Uniform618
Controls x2 (d)12Uniform618
Nurse time minutes (e)30Uniform2090
HCP cost per minute (f)0.483Uniform0.2420.725
GP time minutes (g)10Uniform545
GP cost per minute (h)3Uniform1.54.5
No of allergies tested for (i)8Uniform516
IgE blood testTotal (u*v)+(v*x)+(y*z)
Cost per allergy tested for (u)12Uniform618
No of allergies tested for (v)8Uniform516
GP time minutes (w)10Uniform545
GP cost per minute (x)3Uniform1.54.5
Nurse time minutes (y)2Uniform110
HCP cost per minute (z)0.483Uniform0.2420.725
Cost of managing allergiesTotal I*II*III
Proportion receiving epinephrine-pens (I)0.34Uniform01
Number of epinephrine-pens (II)4Uniform16
Cost of epinephrine-pens (III)28Uniform2035
*

is the sample size this is then used to calculate A and B, where A is the mean and B is sample size – mean.

From: Appendix 3.1, IgE-mediated food allergy – Cost effectiveness analysis

Cover of Food Allergy in Children and Young People
Food Allergy in Children and Young People: Diagnosis and Assessment of Food Allergy in Children and Young People in Primary Care and Community Settings.
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 116.
Centre for Clinical Practice at NICE (UK).
Copyright © 2011, National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence.

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