Table 4Consequences of strategy B. Note: totals might not add exactly given that numbers are presented without decimals

signsdecision rule1=refer urgently, 0= do not refer, twwno. of person with symptomsnumber of persons with cancerPositive predictive value (PPV)no. of person urgently referredno. of patients with cancer urgently referredno. of patients without cancer urgently referredno. of persons with cancer not referred urgentlyavoided referrals of patients without cancer
60 and over
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)yes11681020.60741681026600
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)no11,4551740.11971,4551741,28100
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)yes138190.509138191900
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)no1561500.08915615051100
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)yes146170.358246173000
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)no01,018150.0150000151,002
change in bowel habit without bleedingyes1131580.4392131587400
change in bowel habit without bleedingno11,648640.03871,648641,58400
40–6000
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)yes152190.360052193300
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)no11,182440.03761,182441,13800
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)yes1630.444463300
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)no035550.01370005350
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)yes12640.15792642200
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)no01,304100.0074000101,294
change in bowel habit without bleedingyes12460.23532461800
change in bowel habit without bleedingno063590.01420009626
<4000
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)yes11210.05561211200
bleeding+change in bowel habit (+ or − ps)no038410.00360001382
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)yes1100.000010100
bleeding with no change in bowel habit(−ps)no016400.00000000164
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)yes1600.000060600
bleeding with no change in bowel habit (+ps)no067800.00000000678
change in bowel habit without bleedingyes1510.285751300
change in bowel habit without bleedingno010010.0069000199
Total10,0006025,3625614,801414,597

ps= perianal symptoms

From: Appendix C, The Health Economics of Referral for Suspected Colorectal Cancer

Cover of Referral Guidelines for Suspected Cancer in Adults and Children
Referral Guidelines for Suspected Cancer in Adults and Children [Internet].
NICE Clinical Guidelines, No. 27.
Clinical Governance Research and Development Unit (CGRDU), Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester.
Copyright © 2005, National Collaborating Centre for Primary Care.

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