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J Nurs Res. 2019 Oct 30. doi: 10.1097/jnr.0000000000000356. [Epub ahead of print]

Predictive Factors of Mortality in Older Adult Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities.

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PhD, RN, GNP, Research Associate, College of Nursing, Hanyang University, Seoul, ROK.



Various factors affect the mortality of older adult residents of long-term care facilities. To provide adequate nursing care for older adults, it is necessary to understand the factors that affect their risk of mortality.


This study was designed to (a) evaluate the 24-month survival rate and (b) identify the underlying cause of death in various dimensions, including cognitive, psychological, and physical function; nutritional status; and chronic disease.


A longitudinal study was carried out between 2011 and 2013 at seven long-term care facilities. The participants comprised 276 residents who were all older than 65 years old. Baseline measurements included cognitive function (Mini-Mental State Examination for Dementia Screening), psychological function (Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia), physical function (Barthel Index), nutritional status (Mini Nutritional Assessment, mid-arm circumference, and calf circumference), and chronic disease status (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic respiratory disease, heart disease, and urinary incontinence). Data analysis included univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify the main factors affecting mortality.


In 2011 (baseline), the mean age of the participants was 80.46 years (SD = 7.08) and most were female (73.6%). At the 24-month follow-up, 94 (34.1%) of the participants had died. The major factors affecting mortality were as follows: cognitive dysfunction (OR = 3.12, 95% CI [1.41, 6.90]), mid-arm circumference (< 22.5 cm; OR = 2.32, 95% CI [1.35, 3.96]), and urinary incontinence (OR = 2.04, 95% CI [1.16, 3.61]).


According to the findings, special attention is needed at the end of life to improve the quality of life of older adults with cognitive dysfunction, malnutrition (low mid-arm circumference), and urinary incontinence who reside in long-term care facilities.

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