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Nat Microbiol. 2019 Mar 4. doi: 10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y. [Epub ahead of print]

Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

Author information

1
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
2
Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
3
Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
4
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
5
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
6
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
7
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
8
Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
9
Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
10
Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium.
11
Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
12
RTI International, Washington, DC, USA.
13
Epidemiology and Public Health Division, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
14
Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
15
School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.
16
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
17
Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
18
School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, China.
19
College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China.
20
School of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.
21
Waen Associates Ltd, Y Waen, Islaw'r Dref, Dolgellau, Gwynedd, UK.
22
Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Washington, DC, USA.
23
National Dengue Control Program, Ministry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
24
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
25
Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
26
Avia-GIS, Zoersel, Belgium.
27
Francis Schaffner Consultancy, Riehen, Switzerland.
28
Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
29
Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
30
Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
31
Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden.
32
Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
33
Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
34
Insect-Virus Interactions Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Paris, France.
35
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Paris, France.
36
Department of Geography, Universite de Namur, Namur, Belgium.
37
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
38
Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
39
State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changping, Beijing, China.
40
Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
41
WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Beijing, China.
42
Chongqing Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China.
43
Environmental Research Group Oxford (ERGO), Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
44
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. sihay@uw.edu.
45
School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. nick.golding.research@gmail.com.

Abstract

The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

PMID:
30833735
DOI:
10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y

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