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BMC Geriatr. 2018 Dec 27;18(1):320. doi: 10.1186/s12877-018-1010-1.

Validation of a one year fracture prediction tool for absolute hip fracture risk in long term care residents.

Author information

1
Geriatric Education and Research in Aging Sciences (GERAS), St Peter's Hospital, 88 Maplewood Ave, Hamilton, ON, Canada. negmam@mcmaster.ca.
2
School of Rehabilitation Sciences, IAHS 403, McMaster University, 1400 Main St. W., Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 1C7, Canada. negmam@mcmaster.ca.
3
Geriatric Education and Research in Aging Sciences (GERAS), St Peter's Hospital, 88 Maplewood Ave, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
4
Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
5
School of Public Health and Health Systems, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
6
Department of Kinesiology and Schlegel-UW Research Institute for Aging, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
7
School of Rehabilitation Sciences, IAHS 403, McMaster University, 1400 Main St. W., Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 1C7, Canada.
8
Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St West, Hamilton, ON, Canada.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Frail older adults living in long term care (LTC) homes have a high fracture risk, which can result in reduced quality of life, pain and death. The Fracture Risk Scale (FRS) was designed for fracture risk assessment in LTC, to optimize targeting of services in those at highest risk. This study aims to examine the construct validity and discriminative properties of the FRS in three Canadian provinces at 1-year follow up.

METHODS:

LTC residents were included if they were: 1) Adults admitted to LTC homes in Ontario (ON), British Columbia (BC) and Manitoba (MB) Canada; and 2) Received a Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set Version 2.0. After admission to LTC, one-year hip fracture risk was evaluated for all the included residents using the FRS (an eight-level risk scale, level 8 represents the highest fracture risk). Multiple logistic regressions were used to determine the differences in incident hip or all clinical fractures across the provinces and FRS risk levels. We examined the differences in incident hip or all clinical fracture for each FRS level across the three provinces (adjusted for age, BMI, gender, fallers and previous fractures). We used the C-statistic to assess the discriminative properties of the FRS for each province.

RESULTS:

Descriptive statistics on the LTC populations in ON (n = 29,848), BC (n = 3129), and MB (n = 2293) are: mean (SD) age 82 (10), 83 (10), and 84 (9), gender (female %) 66, 64, and 70% respectively. The incident hip fractures and all clinical fractures for FRS risk level were similar among the three provinces and ranged from 0.5 to 19.2% and 1 to 19.2% respectively. The overall discriminative properties of the FRS were similar between ON (C-statistic = 0.673), BC (C-statistic = 0.644) and MB (C-statistic = 0.649) samples.

CONCLUSION:

FRS is a valid tool for identifying LTC residents at different risk levels for hip or all clinical fractures in three provinces. Having a fracture risk assessment tool that is tailored to the LTC context and embedded within the routine clinical assessment may have significant implications for policy, service delivery and care planning, and may improve care for LTC residents across Canada.

KEYWORDS:

Hip fracture; InterRAI prediction; Long term care; Mortality; Nursing home

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