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PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Apr 27;11(4):e0005531. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531. eCollection 2017 Apr.

The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States.

Author information

1
Public Health Computational and Operations Research (PHICOR) and Global Obesity Prevention Center (GOPC), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
2
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
3
Sabin Vaccine Institute and Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, United States of America.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:

To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million).

CONCLUSIONS:

Our model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion.

PMID:
28448488
PMCID:
PMC5407573
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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