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Vaccine. 2016 Jun 17;34(29):3405-11. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.04.010. Epub 2016 Apr 14.

Cost-effectiveness of next-generation vaccines: The case of pertussis.

Author information

1
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. Electronic address: meagan.fitzpatrick@yale.edu.
2
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA; Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Disease, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
3
Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA.
4
Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA; Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA; New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.
5
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
6
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
7
Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.

Abstract

Despite steady vaccination coverage rates, pertussis incidence in the United States has continued to rise. This public health challenge has motivated calls for the development of a new vaccine with greater efficacy and duration of protection. Any next-generation vaccine would likely come at a higher cost, and must provide sufficient health benefits beyond those provided by the current vaccine in order to be deemed cost-effective. Using an age-structured transmission model of pertussis, we quantified the health and economic benefits of a next-generation vaccine that would enhance either the efficacy or duration of protection of the childhood series, the duration of the adult booster, or a combination. We developed a metric, the maximum cost-effective price increase (MCPI), to compare the potential value of such improvements. The MCPI estimates the per-dose price increase that would maintain the cost-effectiveness of pertussis vaccination. We evaluated the MCPI across a range of potential single and combined improvements to the pertussis vaccine. As an upper bound, we found that a next-generation vaccine which could achieve perfect efficacy for the childhood series would permit an MCPI of $18 per dose (95% CI: $12-$31). Pertussis vaccine improvements that extend the duration of protection to an average of 75 years would allow for an MCPI of $22 per dose for the childhood series (CI: $10-$33) or $12 for the adult booster (CI: $4-$18). Despite the short duration of the adult booster, improvements to the childhood series could be more valuable than improvements to the adult booster. Combining improvements in both efficacy and duration, a childhood series with perfect efficacy and average duration of 75 years would permit an MCPI of $39 per dose, the highest of any scenario evaluated. Our results highlight the utility of the MCPI metric in evaluating potential vaccines or other interventions when prices are unknown.

KEYWORDS:

Cost-effectiveness; Mathematical modeling; Pertussis; Price; Vaccine

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