Format

Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Parasit Vectors. 2015 Dec 9;8:630. doi: 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.

Author information

1
University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. deirdre.hollingsworth@warwick.ac.uk.
2
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
3
Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
4
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
5
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
6
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, USA.
7
Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
8
University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
9
Princeton University, New Jersey, NJ, 08544, USA.
10
Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
11
Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3800, Australia.
12
Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, 44106, USA.
13
University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94143, USA.
14
University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, 47556, USA.
15
Vector Control Research Centre, Pondicherry, 605006, India.
16
Children's Investment Fund Foundation, London, W1S 2FT, UK.

Abstract

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

PMID:
26652272
PMCID:
PMC4674954
DOI:
10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for BioMed Central Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Support Center