Format

Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
J Theor Biol. 2015 Dec 21;387:174-80. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.037. Epub 2015 Oct 22.

Disease elimination and re-emergence in differential-equation models.

Author information

1
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, School of Public Health, Yale University, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. Electronic address: scottyg3@gmail.com.
2
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, School of Public Health, Yale University, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. Electronic address: alison.galvani@yale.edu.
3
Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Oregon State University, 106 Dryden Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA. Electronic address: jan.medlock@oregonstate.edu.

Abstract

Traditional differential equation models of disease transmission are often used to predict disease trajectories and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies. However, such models cannot account explicitly for probabilistic events, such as those that dominate dynamics when disease prevalence is low during the elimination and re-emergence phases of an outbreak. To account for the dynamics at low prevalence, i.e. the elimination and risk of disease re-emergence, without the added analytical and computational complexity of a stochastic model, we develop a novel application of control theory. We apply our approach to analyze historical data of measles elimination and re-emergence in Iceland from 1923 to 1938, predicting the temporal trajectory of local measles elimination and re-emerge as a result of disease migration from Copenhagen, Denmark.

KEYWORDS:

Control theory; Dynamic modeling; Eradication; Infectious-disease modeling; Migration

PMID:
26471072
PMCID:
PMC4655889
DOI:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.037
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

0 comments
How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Elsevier Science Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Support Center