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J Theor Biol. 2014 Feb 7;342:15-22. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.10.006. Epub 2013 Oct 23.

Country- and age-specific optimal allocation of dengue vaccines.

Author information

1
School of Public Health, Yale University Suite 200, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA. Electronic address: martial.ndeffo-mbah@yale.edu.
2
School of Public Health, Yale University Suite 200, 135 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.
3
Department of Biomedical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.

Abstract

Several dengue vaccines are under development, and some are expected to become available imminently. Concomitant with the anticipated release of these vaccines, vaccine allocation strategies for dengue-endemic countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America are currently under development. We developed a model of dengue transmission that incorporates the age-specific distributions of dengue burden corresponding to those in Thailand and Brazil, respectively, to determine vaccine allocations that minimize the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever, taking into account limited availability of vaccine doses in the initial phase of production. We showed that optimal vaccine allocation strategies vary significantly with the demographic burden of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Consequently, the strategy that is optimal for one country may be sub-optimal for another country. More specifically, we showed that, during the first years following introduction of a dengue vaccine, it is optimal to target children for dengue mass vaccination in Thailand, whereas young adults should be targeted in Brazil.

KEYWORDS:

Dengue hemorrhagic fever; Dengue vaccine; Mathematical modeling; Optimization

PMID:
24161462
PMCID:
PMC3947060
DOI:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.10.006
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
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