Send to

Choose Destination
See comment in PubMed Commons below
Risk Anal. 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S179-89. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01734.x.

Chapter 14: Comparing the adequacy of carcinogenesis models in estimating U.S. population rates for lung cancer mortality.

Author information

Yale School of Public Health, 60 College St., New Haven, CT 06520, USA.


The relationship between smoking and lung cancer is well established and cohort studies provide estimates of risk for individual cohorts. While population trends are qualitatively consistent with smoking trends, the rates do not agree well with results from analytical studies. Four carcinogenesis models for the effect of smoking on lung cancer mortality were used to estimate lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. males: two-stage clonal expansion and multistage models using parameters estimated from two Cancer Prevention Studies (CPS I and CPS II). Calibration was essential to adjust for both shift and temporal trend. The age-period-cohort model was used for calibration. Overall, models using parameters derived from CPS I performed best, and the corresponding two-stage clonal expansion model was best overall. However, temporal calibration did significantly improve agreement with the population rates, especially the effect of age and cohort.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article
PubMed Commons home

PubMed Commons

How to join PubMed Commons

    Supplemental Content

    Full text links

    Icon for Wiley Icon for PubMed Central
    Loading ...
    Support Center