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Bull Math Biol. 2009 Jan;71(1):247-63. doi: 10.1007/s11538-008-9361-y. Epub 2008 Dec 10.

Latent coinfection and the maintenance of strain diversity.

Author information

1
Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. ccolijn@gmail.com

Abstract

Technologies for strain differentiation and typing have made it possible to detect genetic diversity of pathogens, both within individual hosts and within communities. Coinfection of a host by more than one pathogen strain may affect the relative frequency of these strains at the population level through complex within- and between-host interactions; in infectious diseases that have a long latent period, interstrain competition during latency is likely to play an important role in disease dynamics. We show that SEIR models that include a class of latently coinfected individuals can have markedly different long-term dynamics than models without coinfection, and that coinfection can greatly facilitate the stable coexistence of strains. We demonstrate these dynamics using a model relevant to tuberculosis in which people may experience latent coinfection with both drug sensitive and drug resistant strains. Using this model, we show that the existence of a latent coinfected state allows the possibility that disease control interventions that target latency may facilitate the emergence of drug resistance.

PMID:
19082663
PMCID:
PMC2652765
DOI:
10.1007/s11538-008-9361-y
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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