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J Theor Biol. 2007 Aug 21;247(4):765-74. Epub 2007 Apr 27.

Emergent heterogeneity in declining tuberculosis epidemics.

Author information

1
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. ccolijn@hsph.harvard.edu

Abstract

Tuberculosis is a disease of global importance: over 2 million deaths are attributed to this infectious disease each year. Even in areas where tuberculosis is in decline, there are sporadic outbreaks which are often attributed either to increased host susceptibility or increased strain transmissibility and virulence. Using two mathematical models, we explore the role of the contact structure of the population, and find that in declining epidemics, localized outbreaks may occur as a result of contact heterogeneity even in the absence of host or strain variability. We discuss the implications of this finding for tuberculosis control in low incidence settings.

PMID:
17540410
PMCID:
PMC2652758
DOI:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.04.015
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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