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Items: 1 to 20 of 104

1.

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.

Johansson MA, Apfeldorf KM, Dobson S, Devita J, Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E, Yamana TK, Shaman J, Moschou T, Lothian N, Lane A, Osborne G, Jiang G, Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R, Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Moore SM, Clapham HE, Lowe R, Bailey TC, García-Díez M, Carvalho MS, Rodó X, Sardar T, Paul R, Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Brown AC, Meng X, Osoba O, Vardavas R, Manheim D, Moore M, Rao DM, Porco TC, Ackley S, Liu F, Worden L, Convertino M, Liu Y, Reddy A, Ortiz E, Rivero J, Brito H, Juarrero A, Johnson LR, Gramacy RB, Cohen JM, Mordecai EA, Murdock CC, Rohr JR, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Weikel DP, Jutla A, Khan R, Poultney M, Colwell RR, Rivera-García B, Barker CM, Bell JE, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Mier-Y-Teran-Romero L, Forshey BM, Trtanj J, Asher J, Clay M, Margolis HS, Hebbeler AM, George D, Chretien JP.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Nov 26;116(48):24268-24274. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1909865116. Epub 2019 Nov 11. Erratum in: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Dec 9;:.

2.

Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016.

McGowan CJ, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Apfeldorf KM, Ben-Nun M, Brooks L, Convertino M, Erraguntla M, Farrow DC, Freeze J, Ghosh S, Hyun S, Kandula S, Lega J, Liu Y, Michaud N, Morita H, Niemi J, Ramakrishnan N, Ray EL, Reich NG, Riley P, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Vespignani A, Zhang Q, Reed C; Influenza Forecasting Working Group.

Sci Rep. 2019 Jan 24;9(1):683. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9.

3.

Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.

Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Alper D, Brooks LC, Chakraborty P, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Kandula S, McGowan C, Ramakrishnan N, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ, Vespignani A, Yang W, Zhang Q, Reed C.

Epidemics. 2018 Sep;24:26-33. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.003. Epub 2018 Feb 24.

4.

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks.

Yamana TK, Kandula S, Shaman J.

J R Soc Interface. 2016 Oct;13(123). pii: 20160410.

5.

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

Lowe R, Coelho CA, Barcellos C, Carvalho MS, Catão Rde C, Coelho GE, Ramalho WM, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Rodó X.

Elife. 2016 Feb 24;5. pii: e11285. doi: 10.7554/eLife.11285.

6.

Development and evaluation of a real-time forecasting framework for daily water quality forecasts for Lake Chaohu to Lead time of six days.

Peng Z, Hu W, Liu G, Zhang H, Gao R, Wei W.

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Oct 15;687:218-231. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.067. Epub 2019 Jun 7.

PMID:
31207512
7.

Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray EL, Osthus D, Kandula S, Brooks LC, Crawford-Crudell W, Gibson GC, Moore E, Silva R, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Nov 22;15(11):e1007486. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007486. eCollection 2019 Nov.

8.

Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore.

Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR.

Environ Health Perspect. 2016 Sep;124(9):1369-75. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1509981. Epub 2015 Dec 11.

9.

Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics.

Rypdal M, Sugihara G.

Nat Commun. 2019 May 30;10(1):2374. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y.

10.

Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA.

Ben-Nun M, Riley P, Turtle J, Bacon DP, Riley S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 May 23;15(5):e1007013. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007013. eCollection 2019 May.

11.

Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions.

Brooks LC, Farrow DC, Hyun S, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Jun 15;14(6):e1006134. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006134. eCollection 2018 Jun.

12.

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

Lowe R, Barcellos C, Coelho CA, Bailey TC, Coelho GE, Graham R, Jupp T, Ramalho WM, Carvalho MS, Stephenson DB, Rodó X.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Jul;14(7):619-26. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9. Epub 2014 May 16.

PMID:
24841859
13.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Hota A, Brownstein JS, Santillana M.

Sci Rep. 2016 Sep 26;6:33707. doi: 10.1038/srep33707.

14.

Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15.

Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Feb 11;15(2):e1006785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006785. eCollection 2019 Feb.

15.

Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples.

Lutz CS, Huynh MP, Schroeder M, Anyatonwu S, Dahlgren FS, Danyluk G, Fernandez D, Greene SK, Kipshidze N, Liu L, Mgbere O, McHugh LA, Myers JF, Siniscalchi A, Sullivan AD, West N, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M.

BMC Public Health. 2019 Dec 10;19(1):1659. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8.

16.

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States.

Reich NG, Brooks LC, Fox SJ, Kandula S, McGowan CJ, Moore E, Osthus D, Ray EL, Tushar A, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Feb 19;116(8):3146-3154. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1812594116. Epub 2019 Jan 15.

17.

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge.

Biggerstaff M, Alper D, Dredze M, Fox S, Fung IC, Hickmann KS, Lewis B, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J, Tsou MH, Velardi P, Vespignani A, Finelli L; Influenza Forecasting Contest Working Group.

BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Jul 22;16:357. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1669-x.

18.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

Buczak AL, Baugher B, Moniz LJ, Bagley T, Babin SM, Guven E.

PLoS One. 2018 Jan 3;13(1):e0189988. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0189988. eCollection 2018.

19.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

Foreman KJ, Marquez N, Dolgert A, Fukutaki K, Fullman N, McGaughey M, Pletcher MA, Smith AE, Tang K, Yuan CW, Brown JC, Friedman J, He J, Heuton KR, Holmberg M, Patel DJ, Reidy P, Carter A, Cercy K, Chapin A, Douwes-Schultz D, Frank T, Goettsch F, Liu PY, Nandakumar V, Reitsma MB, Reuter V, Sadat N, Sorensen RJD, Srinivasan V, Updike RL, York H, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Vollset SE, Murray CJL.

Lancet. 2018 Nov 10;392(10159):2052-2090. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31694-5. Epub 2018 Oct 16.

20.

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

Weisheimer A, Palmer TN.

J R Soc Interface. 2014 Apr 30;11(96):20131162. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.1162. Print 2014 Jul 6.

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