PMID- 30080907
OWN - NLM
STAT- MEDLINE
DCOM- 20190128
LR  - 20190128
IS  - 1932-6203 (Electronic)
IS  - 1932-6203 (Linking)
VI  - 13
IP  - 8
DP  - 2018
TI  - Time series analysis of bovine venereal diseases in La Pampa, Argentina.
PG  - e0201739
LID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0201739 [doi]
AB  - The venereal diseases bovine trichomoniasis (BT) and bovine genital
      campylobacteriosis (BGC) cause economic losses in endemic areas like La Pampa
      province in Argentina where beef cattle are usually extensively managed. This
      study used data compiled between 2007 and 2014 by a Provincial Program for the
      Control and Eradication of venereal diseases in order to develop and analyze
      retrospective models of time series for BT and BGC. Seasonality and long-term
      trend were explored with decomposition and simple regression methods.
      Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) were used to fit
      univariate models for the prevalence and persistence of BT and BGC.
      Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variable models
      (ARIMAX) were used to analyze the association between different time series,
      replacement entries and herd samplings. The prevalence and persistence of BT and 
      BGC have decreased from 2007 to 2014. All the BT and BGC time series are seasonal
      and their long-term trend is decreasing. Seasonality of BT and BGC is similar,
      with higher rates of detection in autumn-winter than is spring-summer. Prevalence
      and persistence time series are correlated, indicating their changes are
      synchronic and follow a similar time pattern. Prevalence of BT and BGC showed the
      best fitting with the ARIMA (0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model. While for persistence of BT
      and BGC, the best adjustment was with the same model with no seasonal difference 
      where the current number of cases depends on the moving averages of the month and
      the previous season. Including covariates improve the fitting of univariate
      models, in addition, estimations using ARIMAX models are more precise than using 
      ARIMA models. The time distribution of the samplings could be increasing the
      false negative ratio. According to the obtained results, the ARIMA and ARIMAX
      models can be considered an option to predict the BT and BGC prevalence and
      persistence in La Pampa (Argentina).
FAU - Molina, Leonardo L
AU  - Molina LL
AD  - School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of La Pampa, General Pico,
      Argentina.
AD  - National Service of Health and Agro-Food Quality (SENASA), Centro Regional La
      Pampa-San Luis, Corrientes, Santa Rosa, Argentina.
FAU - Angon, Elena
AU  - Angon E
AUID- ORCID: 0000-0002-6807-6146
AD  - Department of Animal Production, School of Veterinary, University of Cordoba,
      Cordoba, Spain.
FAU - Garcia, Anton
AU  - Garcia A
AD  - Department of Animal Production, School of Veterinary, University of Cordoba,
      Cordoba, Spain.
FAU - Moralejo, Ricardo H
AU  - Moralejo RH
AD  - School of Veterinary Medicine, National University of La Pampa, General Pico,
      Argentina.
AD  - Ministerio de la Produccion, Gobierno de La Pampa, Santa Rosa, Argentina.
FAU - Caballero-Villalobos, Javier
AU  - Caballero-Villalobos J
AD  - Department of Animal Production, School of Veterinary, University of Cordoba,
      Cordoba, Spain.
FAU - Perea, Jose
AU  - Perea J
AD  - Department of Animal Production, School of Veterinary, University of Cordoba,
      Cordoba, Spain.
LA  - eng
PT  - Journal Article
PT  - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
DEP - 20180806
PL  - United States
TA  - PLoS One
JT  - PloS one
JID - 101285081
SB  - IM
MH  - Animals
MH  - Argentina/epidemiology
MH  - Campylobacter Infections/epidemiology/*veterinary
MH  - Cattle
MH  - Female
MH  - Male
MH  - Prevalence
MH  - Regression Analysis
MH  - Retrospective Studies
MH  - Seasons
MH  - Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology/*veterinary
MH  - Time Factors
MH  - Trypanosomiasis, Bovine/*epidemiology
PMC - PMC6078287
COIS- The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
EDAT- 2018/08/07 06:00
MHDA- 2019/01/29 06:00
CRDT- 2018/08/07 06:00
PHST- 2017/11/20 00:00 [received]
PHST- 2018/07/20 00:00 [accepted]
PHST- 2018/08/07 06:00 [entrez]
PHST- 2018/08/07 06:00 [pubmed]
PHST- 2019/01/29 06:00 [medline]
AID - 10.1371/journal.pone.0201739 [doi]
AID - PONE-D-17-40988 [pii]
PST - epublish
SO  - PLoS One. 2018 Aug 6;13(8):e0201739. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201739.
      eCollection 2018.