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Items: 34


Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control: Ebola as a case study.

Li SL, Ferrari MJ, Bjørnstad ON, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Pannell D, Shea K.

Proc Biol Sci. 2019 Jun 26;286(1905):20190774. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2019.0774. Epub 2019 Jun 19.


Context matters: using reinforcement learning to develop human-readable, state-dependent outbreak response policies.

Probert WJM, Lakkur S, Fonnesbeck CJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Tildesley MJ, Ferrari MJ.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2019 Jul 8;374(1776):20180277. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0277.


The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination.

Gama Dessavre A, Southall E, Tildesley MJ, Dyson L.

J Theor Biol. 2019 Apr 11. pii: S0022-5193(19)30152-3. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.04.011. [Epub ahead of print]


Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus.

Arzt J, Branan MA, Delgado AH, Yadav S, Moreno-Torres KI, Tildesley MJ, Stenfeldt C.

Sci Rep. 2019 Feb 25;9(1):2707. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-39029-0.


Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: The role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control.

Retkute R, Jewell CP, Van Boeckel TP, Zhang G, Xiao X, Thanapongtharm W, Keeling M, Gilbert M, Tildesley MJ.

Prev Vet Med. 2018 Nov 1;159:171-181. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.09.014. Epub 2018 Sep 19.


The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh.

Hill EM, House T, Dhingra MS, Kalpravidh W, Morzaria S, Osmani MG, Brum E, Yamage M, Kalam MA, Prosser DJ, Takekawa JY, Xiao X, Gilbert M, Tildesley MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Sep 13;14(9):e1006439. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006439. eCollection 2018 Sep.


Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks.

Probert WJM, Jewell CP, Werkman M, Fonnesbeck CJ, Goto Y, Runge MC, Sekiguchi S, Shea K, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Jul 24;14(7):e1006202. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006202. eCollection 2018 Jul.


Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations.

Sellman S, Tsao K, Tildesley MJ, Brommesson P, Webb CT, Wennergren U, Keeling MJ, Lindström T.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Apr 6;14(4):e1006086. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006086. eCollection 2018 Apr.


Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks.

Li SL, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Mummah R, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Probert WJM, Shea K.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 May 30;114(22):5659-5664. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1617482114. Epub 2017 May 15.


Corrigendum: Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence.

Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, House T.

Sci Rep. 2017 May 4;7:46770. doi: 10.1038/srep46770. No abstract available.


Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk.

Hill EM, House T, Dhingra MS, Kalpravidh W, Morzaria S, Osmani MG, Yamage M, Xiao X, Gilbert M, Tildesley MJ.

Epidemics. 2017 Sep;20:37-55. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.007. Epub 2017 Feb 21.


Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence.

Hill EM, Tildesley MJ, House T.

Sci Rep. 2017 Mar 2;7:43623. doi: 10.1038/srep43623. Erratum in: Sci Rep. 2017 May 04;7:46770.


Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns.

Bradbury NV, Probert WJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 16;13(2):e1005318. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318. eCollection 2017 Feb.


Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

Werkman M, Tildesley MJ, Brooks-Pollock E, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2016 Dec;17:35-41. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.10.004. Epub 2016 Oct 13.


Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter.

Probert WJ, Shea K, Fonnesbeck CJ, Runge MC, Carpenter TE, Dürr S, Garner MG, Harvey N, Stevenson MA, Webb CT, Werkman M, Tildesley MJ, Ferrari MJ.

Epidemics. 2016 Jun;15:10-9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.11.002. Epub 2015 Dec 10.


Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data.

Dawson PM, Werkman M, Brooks-Pollock E, Tildesley MJ.

Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Jun 7;282(1808):20150205. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2015.0205.


Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

Brand SP, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ.

J Theor Biol. 2015 Apr 7;370:121-34. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.01.027. Epub 2015 Feb 4.


Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology.

Shea K, Tildesley MJ, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Ferrari MJ.

PLoS Biol. 2014 Oct 21;12(10):e1001970. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001970. eCollection 2014 Oct.


The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States.

Buhnerkempe MG, Tildesley MJ, Lindström T, Grear DA, Portacci K, Miller RS, Lombard JE, Werkman M, Keeling MJ, Wennergren U, Webb CT.

PLoS One. 2014 Mar 26;9(3):e91724. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091724. eCollection 2014.


Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease: do initial conditions affect its benefit?

Porphyre T, Auty HK, Tildesley MJ, Gunn GJ, Woolhouse ME.

PLoS One. 2013 Oct 4;8(10):e77616. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077616. eCollection 2013.


Disease prevention versus data privacy: using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models.

Tildesley MJ, Ryan SJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2012;8(11):e1002723. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002723. Epub 2012 Nov 1.


Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control.

Tildesley MJ, Smith G, Keeling MJ.

Prev Vet Med. 2012 May 1;104(3-4):224-39. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.11.007. Epub 2011 Dec 12.


Potential for epidemic take-off from the primary outbreak farm via livestock movements.

Tildesley MJ, Volkova VV, Woolhouse ME.

BMC Vet Res. 2011 Nov 24;7:76. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-7-76.


Insights into mucosal innate responses to Escherichia coli O157 : H7 colonization of cattle by mathematical modelling of excretion dynamics.

Tildesley MJ, Gally DL, McNeilly TN, Low JC, Mahajan A, Savill NJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2012 Mar 7;9(68):518-27. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0293. Epub 2011 Aug 17.



Deardon R, Brooks SP, Grenfell BT, Keeling MJ, Tildesley MJ, Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Woolhouse ME.

Stat Sin. 2010 Jan;20(1):239-261.


Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control.

Tildesley MJ, House TA, Bruhn MC, Curry RJ, O'Neil M, Allpress JL, Smith G, Keeling MJ.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Jan 19;107(3):1041-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0909047107. Epub 2009 Dec 1.


The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease.

Tildesley MJ, Bessell PR, Keeling MJ, Woolhouse ME.

Proc Biol Sci. 2009 Sep 22;276(1671):3239-48. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.0427. Epub 2009 Jul 1.


Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.

Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ.

J Theor Biol. 2009 Jun 21;258(4):623-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.019. Epub 2009 Mar 6. Erratum in: J Theor Biol. 2009 Aug 21;259(4):863.


Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic.

Tildesley MJ, Deardon R, Savill NJ, Bessell PR, Brooks SP, Woolhouse ME, Grenfell BT, Keeling MJ.

Proc Biol Sci. 2008 Jun 22;275(1641):1459-68. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0006.


Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: a comparison between the UK and Denmark.

Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ.

Prev Vet Med. 2008 Jun 15;85(1-2):107-24. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.01.008. Epub 2008 Mar 6.


Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic.

Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Woolhouse ME, Brooks SP, Grenfell BT.

J R Soc Interface. 2007 Apr 22;4(13):235-41.


Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK.

Tildesley MJ, Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Brooks SP, Woolhouse ME, Grenfell BT, Keeling MJ.

Nature. 2006 Mar 2;440(7080):83-6.


Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic.

Savill NJ, Shaw DJ, Deardon R, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ, Woolhouse ME, Brooks SP, Grenfell BT.

BMC Vet Res. 2006 Jan 16;2:3.

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