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Sci Rep. 2016 Dec 20;6:39536. doi: 10.1038/srep39536.

Probabilistic Assessment of Above Zone Pressure Predictions at a Geologic Carbon Storage Site.

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Department of Civil &Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15217, USA.
U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, 626 Cochrans Mill Road, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15236, USA.
Department of Stochastic Simulation and Safety Research for Hydrosystems (IWS/SRC SimTech), University of Stuttgart, Germany.


Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage into geological formations is regarded as an important mitigation strategy for anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. This study first simulates the leakage of CO2 and brine from a storage reservoir through the caprock. Then, we estimate the resulting pressure changes at the zone overlying the caprock also known as Above Zone Monitoring Interval (AZMI). A data-driven approach of arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) Expansion is then used to quantify the uncertainty in the above zone pressure prediction based on the uncertainties in different geologic parameters. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is performed with Sobol indices based on the aPC technique to determine the relative importance of different parameters on pressure prediction. The results indicate that there can be uncertainty in pressure prediction locally around the leakage zones. The degree of such uncertainty in prediction depends on the quality of site specific information available for analysis. The scientific results from this study provide substantial insight that there is a need for site-specific data for efficient predictions of risks associated with storage activities. The presented approach can provide a basis of optimized pressure based monitoring network design at carbon storage sites.

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