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Response to Comment on "Long-term measles-induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease mortality".

Mina MJ, Grenfell BT, Metcalf CJE.

Science. 2019 Jul 12;365(6449). pii: eaax6498. doi: 10.1126/science.aax6498.


Phylogeography of rubella virus in Asia: Vaccination and demography shape synchronous outbreaks.

Bozick BA, Worby CJ, Metcalf CJE.

Epidemics. 2019 May 28:100346. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100346. [Epub ahead of print]


Perfect counterfactuals for epidemic simulations.

Kaminsky J, Keegan LT, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2019 Jul 8;374(1776):20180279. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0279.


Measles and the canonical path to elimination.

Graham M, Winter AK, Ferrari M, Grenfell B, Moss WJ, Azman AS, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J.

Science. 2019 May 10;364(6440):584-587. doi: 10.1126/science.aau6299.


Mapping vaccination coverage to explore the effects of delivery mechanisms and inform vaccination strategies.

Utazi CE, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Cutts FT, Tatem AJ.

Nat Commun. 2019 Apr 9;10(1):1633. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09611-1.


Seasonal gaps in measles vaccination coverage in Madagascar.

Mensah K, Heraud JM, Takahashi S, Winter AK, Metcalf CJE, Wesolowski A.

Vaccine. 2019 Apr 24;37(18):2511-2519. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.02.069. Epub 2019 Mar 30.


Disentangling serology to elucidate henipa- and filovirus transmission in Madagascar fruit bats.

Brook CE, Ranaivoson HC, Broder CC, Cunningham AA, Héraud JM, Peel AJ, Gibson L, Wood JLN, Metcalf CJ, Dobson AP.

J Anim Ecol. 2019 Jul;88(7):1001-1016. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12985. Epub 2019 Apr 15.


Evolving resistance to pathogens.

Miller IF, Metcalf CJE.

Science. 2019 Mar 22;363(6433):1277-1278. doi: 10.1126/science.aaw8710. No abstract available.


Characterizing the impact of spatial clustering of susceptibility for measles elimination.

Truelove SA, Graham M, Moss WJ, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J.

Vaccine. 2019 Jan 29;37(5):732-741. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.12.012. Epub 2018 Dec 19.


Healthcare utilization, provisioning of post-exposure prophylaxis, and estimation of human rabies burden in Madagascar.

Rajeev M, Edosoa G, Hanitriniaina C, Andriamandimby SF, Guis H, Ramiandrasoa R, Ratovoson R, Randrianasolo L, Andriamananjara M, Heraud JM, Baril L, Metcalf CJE, Hampson K.

Vaccine. 2018 Nov 30. pii: S0264-410X(18)31520-2. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.11.011. [Epub ahead of print]


Schedule and magnitude of reproductive investment under immune trade-offs explains sex differences in immunity.

Metcalf CJE, Graham AL.

Nat Commun. 2018 Oct 22;9(1):4391. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06793-y.


Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

Dalziel BD, Kissler S, Gog JR, Viboud C, Bjørnstad ON, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.

Science. 2018 Oct 5;362(6410):75-79. doi: 10.1126/science.aat6030.


Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar.

Ihantamalala FA, Herbreteau V, Rakotoarimanana FMJ, Rakotondramanga JM, Cauchemez S, Rahoilijaona B, Pennober G, Buckee CO, Rogier C, Metcalf CJE, Wesolowski A.

Nat Commun. 2018 Sep 25;9(1):3897. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-06290-2.


Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan.

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Arima Y, Fujimoto T, Shimizu H, Rogier van Doorn H, Le Van T, Chan YF, Farrar JJ, Oishi K, Grenfell BT.

J R Soc Interface. 2018 Sep 12;15(146). pii: 20180507. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0507.


Improving measles incidence inference using age-structured serological data.

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ.

Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Oct;146(13):1699-1706. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818002054. Epub 2018 Aug 6.


Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar.

Winter AK, Wesolowski AP, Mensah KJ, Ramamonjiharisoa MB, Randriamanantena AH, Razafindratsimandresy R, Cauchemez S, Lessler J, Ferrari MJ, Metcalf CJE, Héraud JM.

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Oct 1;187(10):2219-2226. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy114.


Measles outbreak risk in Pakistan: exploring the potential of combining vaccination coverage and incidence data with novel data-streams to strengthen control.

Wesolowski A, Winter A, Tatem AJ, Qureshi T, Engø-Monsen K, Buckee CO, Cummings DAT, Metcalf CJE.

Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Sep;146(12):1575-1583. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818001449. Epub 2018 Jun 4.


Benefits and Challenges in Using Seroprevalence Data to Inform Models for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

Winter AK, Martinez ME, Cutts FT, Moss WJ, Ferrari MJ, McKee A, Lessler J, Hayford K, Wallinga J, Metcalf CJE.

J Infect Dis. 2018 Jul 2;218(3):355-364. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiy137. Erratum in: J Infect Dis. 2018 Aug 14;218(6):1014.


Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea.

Graham M, Suk JE, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJ, Jimenez AP, Prikazsky V, Ferrari MJ, Lessler J.

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2018 May;98(5):1489-1497. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0218. Epub 2018 Mar 8.


Productive disruption: opportunities and challenges for innovation in infectious disease surveillance.

Buckee CO, Cardenas MIE, Corpuz J, Ghosh A, Haque F, Karim J, Mahmud AS, Maude RJ, Mensah K, Motaze NV, Nabaggala M, Metcalf CJE, Mioramalala SA, Mubiru F, Peak CM, Pramanik S, Rakotondramanga JM, Remera E, Sinha I, Sovannaroth S, Tatem AJ, Zaw W.

BMJ Glob Health. 2018 Feb 19;3(1):e000538. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000538. eCollection 2018. No abstract available.


High resolution age-structured mapping of childhood vaccination coverage in low and middle income countries.

Utazi CE, Thorley J, Alegana VA, Ferrari MJ, Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Tatem AJ.

Vaccine. 2018 Mar 14;36(12):1583-1591. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.02.020. Epub 2018 Feb 14.


Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria in Madagascar.

Ihantamalala FA, Rakotoarimanana FMJ, Ramiadantsoa T, Rakotondramanga JM, Pennober G, Rakotomanana F, Cauchemez S, Metcalf CJE, Herbreteau V, Wesolowski A.

Malar J. 2018 Feb 1;17(1):58. doi: 10.1186/s12936-018-2206-8.


Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics.

Wesolowski A, Zu Erbach-Schoenberg E, Tatem AJ, Lourenço C, Viboud C, Charu V, Eagle N, Engø-Monsen K, Qureshi T, Buckee CO, Metcalf CJE.

Nat Commun. 2017 Dec 12;8(1):2069. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02064-4.


Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps.

Winter AK, Pramanik S, Lessler J, Ferrari M, Grenfell BT, Metcalf CJE.

Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Jan;146(1):65-77. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817002527. Epub 2017 Dec 4.


Drivers of measles mortality: the historic fatality burden of famine in Bangladesh.

Mahmud AS, Alam N, Metcalf CJE.

Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Dec;145(16):3361-3369. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817002564. Epub 2017 Nov 23.


The microbiome beyond the horizon of ecological and evolutionary theory.

Koskella B, Hall LJ, Metcalf CJE.

Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Nov;1(11):1606-1615. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0340-2. Epub 2017 Oct 16. Review.


Demographically framing trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity illuminates selection on immunity.

Metcalf CJE, Tate AT, Graham AL.

Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Nov;1(11):1766-1772. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0315-3. Epub 2017 Sep 25.


Connecting Mobility to Infectious Diseases: The Promise and Limits of Mobile Phone Data.

Wesolowski A, Buckee CO, Engø-Monsen K, Metcalf CJE.

J Infect Dis. 2016 Dec 1;214(suppl_4):S414-S420. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiw273. Review.


Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

Metcalf CJE, Walter KS, Wesolowski A, Buckee CO, Shevliakova E, Tatem AJ, Boos WR, Weinberger DM, Pitzer VE.

Proc Biol Sci. 2017 Aug 16;284(1860). pii: 20170901. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0901. Review.


Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases.

Metcalf CJE, Lessler J.

Science. 2017 Jul 14;357(6347):149-152. doi: 10.1126/science.aam8335. Review.


The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region.

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler J.

Nat Commun. 2017 May 25;8:15585. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15585.


A signature of tree health? Shifts in the microbiome and the ecological drivers of horse chestnut bleeding canker disease.

Koskella B, Meaden S, Crowther WJ, Leimu R, Metcalf CJE.

New Phytol. 2017 Jul;215(2):737-746. doi: 10.1111/nph.14560. Epub 2017 Apr 18.


Elucidating transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for rodent-borne Bartonella spp. in Madagascar.

Brook CE, Bai Y, Yu EO, Ranaivoson HC, Shin H, Dobson AP, Metcalf CJE, Kosoy MY, Dittmar K.

Epidemics. 2017 Sep;20:56-66. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.004. Epub 2017 Mar 16.


Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world - Can elimination be maintained?

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Ferrari M.

Vaccine. 2017 Mar 13;35(11):1488-1493. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.02.008. Epub 2017 Feb 16.


Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic.

Lau MS, Dalziel BD, Funk S, McClelland A, Tiffany A, Riley S, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 28;114(9):2337-2342. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1614595114. Epub 2017 Feb 13.


Opportunities and challenges of a World Serum Bank - Authors' reply.

Metcalf CJ, Mina MJ, Winter AK, Grenfell BT.

Lancet. 2017 Jan 21;389(10066):252. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30054-5. Epub 2017 Jan 20. No abstract available.


Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico.

Mahmud AS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Feb;145(3):607-625. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816002673. Epub 2016 Nov 22.


Seasonal Population Movements and the Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases.

Buckee CO, Tatem AJ, Metcalf CJE.

Trends Parasitol. 2017 Jan;33(1):10-20. doi: 10.1016/ Epub 2016 Nov 16. Review.


Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study.

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Med. 2016 Oct 11;13(10):e1002144. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002144. eCollection 2016 Oct.


Invasion Dynamics of Teratogenic Infections in Light of Rubella Control: Implications for Zika Virus.

Metcalf CJ, Barrett A.

PLoS Curr. 2016 Aug 16;8. pii: ecurrents.outbreaks.873427b89ab9c75eb90c8ddb8d8c7c90. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.873427b89ab9c75eb90c8ddb8d8c7c90.


Forecasting Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases.

Gandon S, Day T, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.

Trends Ecol Evol. 2016 Oct;31(10):776-788. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2016.07.010. Epub 2016 Aug 24. Review.


Assessing the global threat from Zika virus.

Lessler J, Chaisson LH, Kucirka LM, Bi Q, Grantz K, Salje H, Carcelen AC, Ott CT, Sheffield JS, Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Metcalf CJ, Rodriguez-Barraquer I.

Science. 2016 Aug 12;353(6300):aaf8160. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf8160. Epub 2016 Jul 14. Review.


Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Fournier-Level A, Perry EO, Wang JA, Braun PT, Migneault A, Cooper MD, Metcalf CJ, Schmitt J.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 May 17;113(20):E2812-21. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1517456113. Epub 2016 May 2.


Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies.

Van Boeckel TP, Takahashi S, Liao Q, Xing W, Lai S, Hsiao V, Liu F, Zheng Y, Chang Z, Yuan C, Metcalf CJ, Yu H, Grenfell BT.

Sci Rep. 2016 Apr 29;6:25248. doi: 10.1038/srep25248.


Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination.

Wesolowski A, Mensah K, Brook CE, Andrianjafimasy M, Winter A, Buckee CO, Razafindratsimandresy R, Tatem AJ, Heraud JM, Metcalf CJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2016 Apr;13(117). pii: 20151101. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2015.1101.


The effects of host age and spatial location on bacterial community composition in the English Oak tree (Quercus robur).

Meaden S, Metcalf CJE, Koskella B.

Environ Microbiol Rep. 2016 Oct;8(5):649-658. doi: 10.1111/1758-2229.12418. Epub 2016 Jun 3.


Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease.

Metcalf CJ, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BT.

Lancet. 2016 Aug 13;388(10045):728-30. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30164-7. Epub 2016 Apr 5. No abstract available.


Invisible Trade-offs: Van Noordwijk and de Jong and Life-History Evolution.

Metcalf CJ.

Am Nat. 2016 Apr;187(4):iii-v. doi: 10.1086/685487. Epub 2016 Feb 26. No abstract available.


Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

Takahashi S, Liao Q, Van Boeckel TP, Xing W, Sun J, Hsiao VY, Metcalf CJ, Chang Z, Liu F, Zhang J, Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Leung GM, Farrar JJ, van Doorn HR, Grenfell BT, Yu H.

PLoS Med. 2016 Feb 16;13(2):e1001958. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001958. eCollection 2016 Feb.


Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns.

Dalziel BD, Bjørnstad ON, van Panhuis WG, Burke DS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Feb 4;12(2):e1004655. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655. eCollection 2016 Feb.

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