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The introduction of 'No jab, No school' policy and the refinement of measles immunisation strategies in high-income countries.

Trentini F, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S.

BMC Med. 2019 May 17;17(1):86. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1318-5.


Effectiveness of Ultra-Low Volume insecticide spraying to prevent dengue in a non-endemic metropolitan area of Brazil.

Marini G, Guzzetta G, Marques Toledo CA, Teixeira M, Rosà R, Merler S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Mar 8;15(3):e1006831. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006831. eCollection 2019 Mar.


Assessing the risk of autochthonous yellow fever transmission in Lazio, central Italy.

Manica M, Guzzetta G, Filipponi F, Solimini A, Caputo B, Della Torre A, Rosà R, Merler S.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 Jan 10;13(1):e0006970. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006970. eCollection 2019 Jan. No abstract available.


Measurability of the epidemic reproduction number in data-driven contact networks.

Liu QH, Ajelli M, Aleta A, Merler S, Moreno Y, Vespignani A.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Dec 11;115(50):12680-12685. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1811115115. Epub 2018 Nov 21.


Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.

Sun K, Zhang Q, Pastore-Piontti A, Chinazzi M, Mistry D, Dean NE, Rojas DP, Merler S, Poletti P, Rossi L, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A.

BMC Med. 2018 Oct 18;16(1):195. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1185-5.


The hidden burden of measles in Ethiopia: how distance to hospital shapes the disease mortality rate.

Poletti P, Parlamento S, Fayyisaa T, Feyyiss R, Lusiani M, Tsegaye A, Segafredo G, Putoto G, Manenti F, Merler S.

BMC Med. 2018 Oct 18;16(1):177. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1171-y.


Different Clinical Phenotypes of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source: A Subgroup Analysis of 86 Patients.

Piffer S, Bignamini V, Rozzanigo U, Poletti P, Merler S, Gremes E, Bonifati DM.

J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2018 Dec;27(12):3578-3586. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2018.08.029. Epub 2018 Oct 12.


Modeling the impact of changes in day-care contact patterns on the dynamics of varicella transmission in France between 1991 and 2015.

Marziano V, Poletti P, Béraud G, Boëlle PY, Merler S, Colizza V.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Aug 1;14(8):e1006334. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006334. eCollection 2018 Aug.


Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction.

Guzzetta G, Marques-Toledo CA, Rosà R, Teixeira M, Merler S.

Nat Commun. 2018 Jul 19;9(1):2837. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05230-4.


The impact of demographic changes, exogenous boosting and new vaccination policies on varicella and herpes zoster in Italy: a modelling and cost-effectiveness study.

Melegaro A, Marziano V, Del Fava E, Poletti P, Tirani M, Rizzo C, Merler S.

BMC Med. 2018 Jul 17;16(1):117. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1094-7.


The containment of potential outbreaks triggered by imported Chikungunya cases in Italy: a cost utility epidemiological assessment of vector control measures.

Trentini F, Poletti P, Baldacchino F, Drago A, Montarsi F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Rosà R, Rizzo C, Merler S, Melegaro A.

Sci Rep. 2018 Jun 13;8(1):9034. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-27443-9.


Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017.

Manica M, Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Filipponi F, Solimini A, Caputo B, Della Torre A, Rosà R, Merler S.

Euro Surveill. 2017 Nov;22(44). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.44.17-00685.


The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt.

Viboud C, Sun K, Gaffey R, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Merler S, Zhang Q, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Vespignani A; RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge group.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:13-21. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.002. Epub 2017 Aug 26.


Detecting a Surprisingly Low Transmission Distance in the Early Phase of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

Marziano V, Pugliese A, Merler S, Ajelli M.

Sci Rep. 2017 Sep 26;7(1):12324. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12415-2.


The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation.

Ajelli M, Zhang Q, Sun K, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Vespignani A.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:3-12. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.09.001. Epub 2017 Sep 20.


First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis.

Marini G, Guzzetta G, Rosà R, Merler S.

Euro Surveill. 2017 Sep 14;22(37). pii: 30612. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.37.30612.


Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe.

Guzzetta G, Trentini F, Poletti P, Baldacchino FA, Montarsi F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Rosà R, Merler S, Melegaro A.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Sep 11;11(9):e0005918. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005918. eCollection 2017 Sep.


Measles immunity gaps and the progress towards elimination: a multi-country modelling analysis.

Trentini F, Poletti P, Merler S, Melegaro A.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Oct;17(10):1089-1097. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30421-8. Epub 2017 Aug 11.


The interplay between individual social behavior and clinical symptoms in small clustered groups.

Poletti P, Visintainer R, Lepri B, Merler S.

BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Jul 26;17(1):521. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2623-2.


Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

Zhang Q, Sun K, Chinazzi M, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Rojas DP, Merler S, Mistry D, Poletti P, Rossi L, Bray M, Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr, Vespignani A.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 May 30;114(22):E4334-E4343. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1620161114. Epub 2017 Apr 25.


Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward.

Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Merler S, Vespignani A.

BMC Med. 2017 Mar 1;15(1):42. doi: 10.1186/s12916-017-0811-y.


The effect of interspecific competition on the temporal dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens.

Marini G, Guzzetta G, Baldacchino F, Arnoldi D, Montarsi F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Merler S, Rosà R.

Parasit Vectors. 2017 Feb 23;10(1):102. doi: 10.1186/s13071-017-2041-8.


Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen.

Guzzetta G, Tagliapietra V, Perkins SE, Hauffe HC, Poletti P, Merler S, Rizzoli A.

J Anim Ecol. 2017 May;86(3):451-459. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12653. Epub 2017 Mar 27.


Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe.

Melegaro A, Del Fava E, Poletti P, Merler S, Nyamukapa C, Williams J, Gregson S, Manfredi P.

PLoS One. 2017 Jan 18;12(1):e0170459. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170459. eCollection 2017.


Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Parlamento S, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Putoto G, Carraro D, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Vespignani A.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Nov 2;10(11):e0005093. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005093. eCollection 2016 Nov.


School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation.

Ciavarella C, Fumanelli L, Merler S, Cattuto C, Ajelli M.

BMC Infect Dis. 2016 Oct 18;16(1):576.


Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.

Ajelli M, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Pastore Y Piontti A, Dean NE, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Vespignani A.

BMC Med. 2016 Sep 7;14(1):130. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3.


Effects of clustered transmission on epidemic growth Comment on "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

Merler S.

Phys Life Rev. 2016 Sep;18:112-113. doi: 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.08.005. Epub 2016 Aug 12. No abstract available.


Prognostic model for advanced breast carcinoma with luminal subtype and impact of hormonal maintenance: Implications for post-progression and conditional survival.

Carbognin L, Sperduti I, Ciccarese M, Fabi A, Petrucelli L, Vari S, Forcignanò RC, Nortilli R, Vicentini C, Pilotto S, Merler S, Zampiva I, Brunelli M, Manfrin E, Giannarelli D, Tortora G, Bria E.

Breast. 2016 Oct;29:24-30. doi: 10.1016/j.breast.2016.06.021. Epub 2016 Jul 7.


Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae).

Guzzetta G, Montarsi F, Baldacchino FA, Metz M, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Pugliese A, Rosà R, Poletti P, Merler S.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Jun 15;10(6):e0004762. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762. eCollection 2016 Jun.


Structural and functional integration between dorsal and ventral language streams as revealed by blunt dissection and direct electrical stimulation.

Sarubbo S, De Benedictis A, Merler S, Mandonnet E, Barbareschi M, Dallabona M, Chioffi F, Duffau H.

Hum Brain Mapp. 2016 Nov;37(11):3858-3872. doi: 10.1002/hbm.23281.


The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy.

Marini G, Poletti P, Giacobini M, Pugliese A, Merler S, Rosà R.

PLoS One. 2016 Apr 22;11(4):e0154018. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0154018. eCollection 2016.


Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Montarsi F, Baldacchino F, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, Rosà R, Merler S.

Euro Surveill. 2016 Apr 14;21(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199.


Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot (STEPP) analysis of Ki67 assay according to histology: prognostic relevance for resected early stage 'pure' and 'mixed' lobular breast cancer.

Carbognin L, Sperduti I, Brunelli M, Marcolini L, Nortilli R, Pilotto S, Zampiva I, Merler S, Fiorio E, Filippi E, Manfrin E, Pellini F, Bonetti F, Pollini GP, Tortora G, Bria E.

J Exp Clin Cancer Res. 2016 Mar 22;35:50. doi: 10.1186/s13046-016-0325-z.


The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling.

Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Merler S, Manfredi P.

Am J Epidemiol. 2016 Apr 15;183(8):765-73. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwv240. Epub 2016 Mar 18.


Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

Fumanelli L, Ajelli M, Merler S, Ferguson NM, Cauchemez S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Jan 21;12(1):e1004681. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004681. eCollection 2016 Jan.


The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Pujehun, Sierra Leone: epidemiology and impact of interventions.

Ajelli M, Parlamento S, Bome D, Kebbi A, Atzori A, Frasson C, Putoto G, Carraro D, Merler S.

BMC Med. 2015 Nov 26;13:281. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0524-z.


Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas.

Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Yang Z, Mukasa LN, Patil N, Bates JH, Kirschner DE, Merler S.

J Theor Biol. 2015 Sep 7;380:238-46. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.05.031. Epub 2015 Jun 5.


Towards a functional atlas of human white matter.

Sarubbo S, De Benedictis A, Merler S, Mandonnet E, Balbi S, Granieri E, Duffau H.

Hum Brain Mapp. 2015 Aug;36(8):3117-36. doi: 10.1002/hbm.22832. Epub 2015 May 9.


Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings.

Poletti P, Merler S, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Munywoki PK, Nokes D, Melegaro A.

BMC Med. 2015 Mar 10;13:49. doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0283-x.


The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study.

Marziano V, Poletti P, Guzzetta G, Ajelli M, Manfredi P, Merler S.

Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Apr 7;282(1804):20142509. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2509.


Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis.

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MF, Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao DL, Longini IM Jr, Halloran ME, Vespignani A.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Feb;15(2):204-11. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71074-6. Epub 2015 Jan 7.


Estimating measles transmission potential in Italy over the period 2010-2011.

Ajelli M, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Bella A, Rizzo C.

Ann Ist Super Sanita. 2014;50(4):351-6. doi: 10.4415/ANN_14_04_10.


The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic.

Ajelli M, Poletti P, Melegaro A, Merler S.

Sci Rep. 2014 Nov 27;4:7218. doi: 10.1038/srep07218.


Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy.

Merler S, Ajelli M.

Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Jan 8;281(1777):20132676. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2676. Print 2014 Feb 22.


Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses.

Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Vespignani A.

BMC Med. 2013 Nov 28;11:252. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-11-252.


Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

Merler S, Ajelli M, Camilloni B, Puzelli S, Bella A, Rota MC, Tozzi AE, Muraca M, Meledandri M, Iorio AM, Donatelli I, Rizzo C.

PLoS One. 2013 Oct 7;8(10):e74785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074785. eCollection 2013.


Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries.

Poletti P, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Del Fava E, Guzzetta G, Faustini L, Scalia Tomba G, Lopalco P, Rizzo C, Merler S, Manfredi P.

PLoS One. 2013 Apr 17;8(4):e60732. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0060732. Print 2013.


A combinatorial model of malware diffusion via bluetooth connections.

Merler S, Jurman G.

PLoS One. 2013;8(3):e59468. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059468. Epub 2013 Mar 21.


Hope-Simpson's progressive immunity hypothesis as a possible explanation for herpes zoster incidence data.

Guzzetta G, Poletti P, Del Fava E, Ajelli M, Scalia Tomba GP, Merler S, Manfredi P.

Am J Epidemiol. 2013 May 15;177(10):1134-42. doi: 10.1093/aje/kws370. Epub 2013 Apr 1.


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