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Sci Data. 2019 Feb 5;6:190005. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2019.5.

Population projections for U.S. counties by age, sex, and race controlled to shared socioeconomic pathway.

Author information

1
Department of Sociology, Florida State University, 600 W. College Avenue, Tallahassee, USA.
2
The Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA.

Abstract

Small area and subnational population projections are important for understanding long-term demographic changes. I provide county-level population projections by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 for all U.S. counties. Using historic U.S. census data in temporally rectified county boundaries and race groups for the period 1990-2015, I calculate cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) for eighteen five-year age groups (0-85+ ), two sex groups (Male and Female), and four race groups (White NH, Black NH, Other NH, Hispanic) for all U.S counties. I then project these CCRs/CCDs using ARIMA models as inputs into Leslie matrix population projection models and control the projections to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. I validate the methods using ex-post facto evaluations using data from 1969-2000 to project 2000-2015. My results are reasonably accurate for this period. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States.

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