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Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.

Russell TW, Hellewell J, Jarvis CI, van Zandvoort K, Abbott S, Ratnayake R, Cmmid Covid-Working Group, Flasche S, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ, Kucharski AJ.

Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256.


The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.

Prem K, Liu Y, Russell TW, Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Davies N; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Jit M, Klepac P.

Lancet Public Health. 2020 Mar 25. pii: S2468-2667(20)30073-6. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6. [Epub ahead of print]


Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.

Kucharski AJ, Russell TW, Diamond C, Liu Y, Edmunds J, Funk S, Eggo RM; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 11. pii: S1473-3099(20)30144-4. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4. [Epub ahead of print] Erratum in: Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 25;:.


Effectiveness of Live Poultry Market Interventions on Human Infection with Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China.

Wang W, Artois J, Wang X, Kucharski AJ, Pei Y, Tong X, Virlogeux V, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Gilbert M, Yu H.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 May 17;26(5). doi: 10.3201/eid2605.190390. [Epub ahead of print]


Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.

Hellewell J, Abbott S, Gimma A, Bosse NI, Jarvis CI, Russell TW, Munday JD, Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Funk S, Eggo RM.

Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Apr;8(4):e488-e496. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7. Epub 2020 Feb 28. Erratum in: Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Mar 5;:.


Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2.

Liu Y, Eggo RM, Kucharski AJ.

Lancet. 2020 Mar 14;395(10227):e47. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30462-1. Epub 2020 Feb 27. No abstract available.


Estimated effectiveness of symptom and risk screening to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Gostic K, Gomez AC, Mummah RO, Kucharski AJ, Lloyd-Smith JO.

Elife. 2020 Feb 24;9. pii: e55570. doi: 10.7554/eLife.55570.


Zika seroprevalence declines and neutralizing antibodies wane in adults following outbreaks in French Polynesia and Fiji.

Henderson AD, Aubry M, Kama M, Vanhomwegen J, Teissier A, Mariteragi-Helle T, Paoaafaite T, Teissier Y, Manuguerra JC, Edmunds J, Whitworth J, Watson CH, Lau CL, Cao-Lormeau VM, Kucharski AJ.

Elife. 2020 Jan 28;9. pii: e48460. doi: 10.7554/eLife.48460.


Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15.

Endo A, Uchida M, Kucharski AJ, Funk S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Dec 26;15(12):e1007589. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007589. eCollection 2019 Dec.


Low chikungunya virus seroprevalence two years after emergence in Fiji.

Aubry M, Kama M, Henderson AD, Teissier A, Vanhomwegen J, Mariteragi-Helle T, Paoaafaite T, Manuguerra JC, Christi K, Watson CH, Lau CL, Kucharski AJ, Cao-Lormeau VM.

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jan;90:223-225. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2019.10.040. Epub 2019 Nov 2.


Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study.

O'Reilly KM, Hendrickx E, Kharisma DD, Wilastonegoro NN, Carrington LB, Elyazar IRF, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Flasche S, Pigott DM, Reiner RC Jr, Edmunds WJ, Hay SI, Yakob L, Shepard DS, Brady OJ.

BMC Med. 2019 Sep 9;17(1):172. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4.


Sustained Low-Level Transmission of Zika and Chikungunya Viruses after Emergence in the Fiji Islands.

Kama M, Aubry M, Naivalu T, Vanhomwegen J, Mariteragi-Helle T, Teissier A, Paoaafaite T, Hué S, Hibberd ML, Manuguerra JC, Christi K, Watson CH, Nilles EJ, Aaskov J, Lau CL, Musso D, Kucharski AJ, Cao-Lormeau VM.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2019 Aug;25(8):1535-1538. doi: 10.3201/eid2508.180524.


An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool.

Bellan SE, Eggo RM, Gsell PS, Kucharski AJ, Dean NE, Donohue R, Zook M, Edmunds WJ, Odhiambo F, Longini IM Jr, Brisson M, Mahon BE, Henao-Restrepo AM.

Vaccine. 2019 Jul 18;37(31):4376-4381. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.06.019. Epub 2019 Jun 24.


The measles crisis in Europe-the need for a joined-up approach.

Robert A, Funk S, Kucharski AJ.

Lancet. 2019 May 18;393(10185):2033. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31039-6. No abstract available.


Determinants of Transmission Risk During the Late Stage of the West African Ebola Epidemic.

Robert A, Edmunds WJ, Watson CH, Henao-Restrepo AM, Gsell PS, Williamson E, Longini IM, Sakoba K, Kucharski AJ, Touré A, Nadlaou SD, Diallo B, Barry MS, Fofana TO, Camara L, Kaba IL, Sylla L, Diaby ML, Soumah O, Diallo A, Niare A, Diallo A, Eggo RM.

Am J Epidemiol. 2019 Jul 1;188(7):1319-1327. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwz090.


Ross River Virus Antibody Prevalence, Fiji Islands, 2013-2015.

Aubry M, Kama M, Vanhomwegen J, Teissier A, Mariteragi-Helle T, Hue S, Hibberd ML, Manuguerra JC, Christi K, Watson CH, Nilles EJ, Lau CL, Aaskov J, Musso D, Kucharski AJ, Cao-Lormeau VM.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2019 Apr;25(4):827-830. doi: 10.3201/eid2504.180694.


Real-time analysis of the diphtheria outbreak in forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in Bangladesh.

Finger F, Funk S, White K, Siddiqui MR, Edmunds WJ, Kucharski AJ.

BMC Med. 2019 Mar 12;17(1):58. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1288-7.


Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15.

Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Feb 11;15(2):e1006785. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006785. eCollection 2019 Feb.


Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics.

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S.

PLoS Biol. 2018 Aug 20;16(8):e2004974. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2004974. eCollection 2018 Aug.


Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji.

Kucharski AJ, Kama M, Watson CH, Aubry M, Funk S, Henderson AD, Brady OJ, Vanhomwegen J, Manuguerra JC, Lau CL, Edmunds WJ, Aaskov J, Nilles EJ, Cao-Lormeau VM, Hué S, Hibberd ML.

Elife. 2018 Aug 14;7. pii: e34848. doi: 10.7554/eLife.34848.


Identifying human encounters that shape the transmission of Streptococcus pneumoniae and other acute respiratory infections.

le Polain de Waroux O, Flasche S, Kucharski AJ, Langendorf C, Ndazima D, Mwanga-Amumpaire J, Grais RF, Cohuet S, Edmunds WJ.

Epidemics. 2018 Dec;25:72-79. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.008. Epub 2018 May 19.


Structure and consistency of self-reported social contact networks in British secondary schools.

Kucharski AJ, Wenham C, Brownlee P, Racon L, Widmer N, Eames KTD, Conlan AJK.

PLoS One. 2018 Jul 25;13(7):e0200090. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200090. eCollection 2018.


Characteristics of human encounters and social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact: a survey in Southwest Uganda.

le Polain de Waroux O, Cohuet S, Ndazima D, Kucharski AJ, Juan-Giner A, Flasche S, Tumwesigye E, Arinaitwe R, Mwanga-Amumpaire J, Boum Y 2nd, Nackers F, Checchi F, Grais RF, Edmunds WJ.

BMC Infect Dis. 2018 Apr 11;18(1):172. doi: 10.1186/s12879-018-3073-1.


Ten simple rules for writing a popular science book.

Kucharski AJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Feb 1;14(2):e1005808. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005808. eCollection 2018 Feb. No abstract available.


Social mixing in Fiji: Who-eats-with-whom contact patterns and the implications of age and ethnic heterogeneity for disease dynamics in the Pacific Islands.

Watson CH, Coriakula J, Ngoc DTT, Flasche S, Kucharski AJ, Lau CL, Thieu NTV, le Polain de Waroux O, Rawalai K, Van TT, Taufa M, Baker S, Nilles EJ, Kama M, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS One. 2017 Dec 6;12(12):e0186911. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186911. eCollection 2017.


High Zika Virus Seroprevalence in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil Limits the Potential for Further Outbreaks.

Netto EM, Moreira-Soto A, Pedroso C, Höser C, Funk S, Kucharski AJ, Rockstroh A, Kümmerer BM, Sampaio GS, Luz E, Vaz SN, Dias JP, Bastos FA, Cabral R, Kistemann T, Ulbert S, de Lamballerie X, Jaenisch T, Brady OJ, Drosten C, Sarno M, Brites C, Drexler JF.

mBio. 2017 Nov 14;8(6). pii: e01390-17. doi: 10.1128/mBio.01390-17.


Expected Duration of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes after Zika Epidemic.

Eggo RM, Kucharski AJ.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2018 Jan;24(1). doi: 10.3201/eid2401.170482. Epub 2018 Jan 17.


Ring vaccination with rVSV-ZEBOV under expanded access in response to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Guinea, 2016: an operational and vaccine safety report.

Gsell PS, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Watson CH, Bagayoko A, Nadlaou SD, Dean NE, Diallo A, Diallo A, Honora DA, Doumbia M, Enwere G, Higgs ES, Mauget T, Mory D, Riveros X, Oumar FT, Fallah M, Toure A, Vicari AS, Longini IM, Edmunds WJ, Henao-Restrepo AM, Kieny MP, Kéïta S.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Dec;17(12):1276-1284. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30541-8. Epub 2017 Oct 9. Erratum in: Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Dec;17 (12 ):1232.


The role of human immunity and social behavior in shaping influenza evolution.

Kucharski AJ, Baguelin M.

PLoS Pathog. 2017 Aug 3;13(8):e1006432. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006432. eCollection 2017 Aug. No abstract available.


The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia.

Funk S, Ciglenecki I, Tiffany A, Gignoux E, Camacho A, Eggo RM, Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ, Bolongei J, Azuma P, Clement P, Alpha TS, Sterk E, Telfer B, Engel G, Parker LA, Suzuki M, Heijenberg N, Reeder B.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 May 26;372(1721). pii: 20160302. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0302.


Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.

Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:56-61. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.003. Epub 2016 Dec 16.


Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone.

Camacho A, Eggo RM, Goeyvaerts N, Vandebosch A, Mogg R, Funk S, Kucharski AJ, Watson CH, Vangeneugden T, Edmunds WJ.

Vaccine. 2017 Jan 23;35(4):544-551. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.12.019. Epub 2016 Dec 23.


Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus.

Funk S, Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Eggo RM, Yakob L, Murray LM, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Dec 7;10(12):e0005173. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005173. eCollection 2016 Dec.


Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak.

Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Eggo RM, Mallet HP, Edmunds WJ, Nilles EJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 May 17;10(5):e0004726. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726. eCollection 2016 May.


Effectiveness of Ring Vaccination as Control Strategy for Ebola Virus Disease.

Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Watson CH, Camacho A, Funk S, Edmunds WJ.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Jan;22(1):105-8. doi: 10.3201/eid2201.151410.


Duration of Ebola virus RNA persistence in semen of survivors: population-level estimates and projections.

Eggo RM, Watson CH, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Edmunds WJ.

Euro Surveill. 2015;20(48):30083. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2015.20.48.30083.


Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach.

Camacho A, Eggo RM, Funk S, Watson CH, Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ.

BMJ Open. 2015 Dec 15;5(12):e009346. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009346.


Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone.

Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Flasche S, Glover RE, Edmunds WJ, Funk S.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Nov 17;112(46):14366-71. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1508814112. Epub 2015 Oct 12.


School's Out: Seasonal Variation in the Movement Patterns of School Children.

Kucharski AJ, Conlan AJ, Eames KT.

PLoS One. 2015 Jun 1;10(6):e0128070. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128070. eCollection 2015.


Transmission Potential of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2013-2014.

Kucharski AJ, Mills HL, Donnelly CA, Riley S.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 May;21(5):852-5. doi: 10.3201/eid2105.141137.


Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks.

Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Apr 10;11(4):e1004154. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004154. eCollection 2015 Apr.


Capturing the dynamics of pathogens with many strains.

Kucharski AJ, Andreasen V, Gog JR.

J Math Biol. 2016 Jan;72(1-2):1-24. doi: 10.1007/s00285-015-0873-4. Epub 2015 Mar 24. Review.


Estimating the life course of influenza A(H3N2) antibody responses from cross-sectional data.

Kucharski AJ, Lessler J, Read JM, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Guan Y, Cummings DA, Riley S.

PLoS Biol. 2015 Mar 3;13(3):e1002082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1002082. eCollection 2015 Mar.


Effectiveness of traveller screening for emerging pathogens is shaped by epidemiology and natural history of infection.

Gostic KM, Kucharski AJ, Lloyd-Smith JO.

Elife. 2015 Feb 19;4. doi: 10.7554/eLife.05564.


Evaluation of the benefits and risks of introducing Ebola community care centers, Sierra Leone.

Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Checchi F, Waldman R, Grais RF, Cabrol JC, Briand S, Baguelin M, Flasche S, Funk S, Edmunds WJ.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 Mar;21(3):393-9. doi: 10.3201/eid2103.141892.


Immunity's illusion.

Kucharski AJ.

Sci Am. 2014 Dec;311(6):80-5. No abstract available.


Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ.

Epidemics. 2014 Dec;9:70-8. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.003. Epub 2014 Oct 6.


Case fatality rate for Ebola virus disease in west Africa.

Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ.

Lancet. 2014 Oct 4;384(9950):1260. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61706-2. Epub 2014 Sep 23. No abstract available.


Containing Ebola virus infection in West Africa.

Kucharski A, Piot P.

Euro Surveill. 2014 Sep 11;19(36). pii: 20899. No abstract available.

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