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Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC).

Castaño MS, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Rock KS, Palmer C, Knock E, Mwamba Miaka E, Ndung'u JM, Torr S, Verlé P, Spencer SEF, Galvani A, Bever C, Keeling MJ, Chitnis N.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Jan 21;14(1):e0007976. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007976. eCollection 2020 Jan.


Screening Strategies for a Sustainable Endpoint for Gambiense Sleeping Sickness.

Castaño MS, Aliee M, Mwamba Miaka E, Keeling MJ, Chitnis N, Rock KS.

J Infect Dis. 2019 Dec 26. pii: jiz588. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz588. [Epub ahead of print]


Village-scale persistence and elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.

Davis CN, Rock KS, Mwamba Miaka E, Keeling MJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 Oct 28;13(10):e0007838. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007838. eCollection 2019 Oct.


Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation.

Hill EM, Petrou S, de Lusignan S, Yonova I, Keeling MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Oct 28;15(10):e1007096. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096. eCollection 2019 Oct.


Vaccination or mass drug administration against schistosomiasis: a hypothetical cost-effectiveness modelling comparison.

Collyer BS, Turner HC, Hollingsworth TD, Keeling MJ.

Parasit Vectors. 2019 Oct 23;12(1):499. doi: 10.1186/s13071-019-3749-4.


The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections.

Tildesley MJ, Brand S, Brooks Pollock E, Bradbury NV, Werkman M, Keeling MJ.

Nat Sustain. 2019 Sep 17;2(9):834-840. doi: 10.1038/s41893-019-0356-5. Epub 2019 Aug 19.


Correlations between stochastic endemic infection in multiple interacting subpopulations.

Meakin SR, Keeling MJ.

J Theor Biol. 2019 Dec 21;483:109991. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.109991. Epub 2019 Sep 2.


Incorporating household structure and demography into models of endemic disease.

Hilton J, Keeling MJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2019 Aug 30;16(157):20190317. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0317. Epub 2019 Aug 7.


Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK.

Datta S, Pink J, Medley GF, Petrou S, Staniszewska S, Underwood M, Sonnenberg P, Keeling MJ.

BMC Infect Dis. 2019 Jun 24;19(1):552. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-4108-y.


Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3.

Datta S, Mercer CH, Keeling MJ.

PLoS One. 2018 Nov 1;13(11):e0206501. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206501. eCollection 2018.


Correlations between stochastic epidemics in two interacting populations.

Meakin SR, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:58-67. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.005. Epub 2018 Aug 30.


Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks.

Probert WJM, Jewell CP, Werkman M, Fonnesbeck CJ, Goto Y, Runge MC, Sekiguchi S, Shea K, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Jul 24;14(7):e1006202. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006202. eCollection 2018 Jul.


Assessing Strategies Against Gambiense Sleeping Sickness Through Mathematical Modeling.

Rock KS, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Castaño S, Palmer C, Pandey A, Atkins KE, Ndung'u JM, Hollingsworth TD, Galvani A, Bever C, Chitnis N, Keeling MJ.

Clin Infect Dis. 2018 Jun 1;66(suppl_4):S286-S292. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy018.


Concurrency of partnerships, consistency with data, and control of sexually transmitted infections.

Leng T, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2018 Dec;25:35-46. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.003. Epub 2018 May 14.


Need for speed: An optimized gridding approach for spatially explicit disease simulations.

Sellman S, Tsao K, Tildesley MJ, Brommesson P, Webb CT, Wennergren U, Keeling MJ, Lindström T.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Apr 6;14(4):e1006086. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006086. eCollection 2018 Apr.


Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data.

Irvine MA, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.

Sci Rep. 2018 Jan 9;8(1):132. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-17346-6.


Predicting the spread of the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) following its incursion into Great Britain.

Keeling MJ, Franklin DN, Datta S, Brown MA, Budge GE.

Sci Rep. 2017 Jul 24;7(1):6240. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-06212-0.


The impact of current infection levels on the cost-benefit of vaccination.

Keeling MJ, Broadfoot KA, Datta S.

Epidemics. 2017 Dec;21:56-62. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.004. Epub 2017 Jul 8.


Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach.

Métras R, Fournié G, Dommergues L, Camacho A, Cavalerie L, Mérot P, Keeling MJ, Cêtre-Sossah C, Cardinale E, Edmunds WJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Jul 21;11(7):e0005767. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767. eCollection 2017 Jul.


Invasion dynamics of Asian hornet, Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae): a case study of a commune in south-west France.

Franklin DN, Brown MA, Datta S, Cuthbertson AGS, Budge GE, Keeling MJ.

Appl Entomol Zool. 2017;52(2):221-229. doi: 10.1007/s13355-016-0470-z. Epub 2017 Mar 17.


Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.

Keeling MJ, Datta S, Franklin DN, Flatman I, Wattam A, Brown M, Budge GE.

J R Soc Interface. 2017 Apr;14(129). pii: 20160908. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0908.


Absence of Evidence of Rift Valley Fever Infection in Eulemur fulvus (Brown Lemur) in Mayotte During an Interepidemic Period.

Métras R, Dommergues L, Ortiz K, Pannequin M, Schuler C, Roux P, Edmunds JW, Keeling MJ, Cêtre-Sossah C, Cardinale E.

Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2017 May;17(5):358-360. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2016.2079. Epub 2017 Feb 21.


The impact of temperature changes on vector-borne disease transmission: Culicoides midges and bluetongue virus.

Brand SP, Keeling MJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2017 Mar;14(128). pii: 20160481. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0481.


Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC.

Rock KS, Pandey A, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Atkins KE, Lumbala C, Galvani A, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2017 Mar;18:101-112. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.006.


Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns.

Bradbury NV, Probert WJ, Shea K, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Keeling MJ, Ferrari MJ, Tildesley MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 16;13(2):e1005318. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318. eCollection 2017 Feb.


Predicting the Impact of Intervention Strategies for Sleeping Sickness in Two High-Endemicity Health Zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rock KS, Torr SJ, Lumbala C, Keeling MJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 Jan 5;11(1):e0005162. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005162. eCollection 2017 Jan.


Systematic Approximations to Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Dynamics on Networks.

Keeling MJ, House T, Cooper AJ, Pellis L.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Dec 20;12(12):e1005296. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005296. eCollection 2016 Dec.


Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Shiri T, Datta S, Madan J, Tsertsvadze A, Royle P, Keeling MJ, McCarthy ND, Petrou S.

Lancet Glob Health. 2017 Jan;5(1):e51-e59. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30306-0. Review.


Preserving privacy whilst maintaining robust epidemiological predictions.

Werkman M, Tildesley MJ, Brooks-Pollock E, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2016 Dec;17:35-41. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.10.004. Epub 2016 Oct 13.


Disease transmission promotes evolution of host spatial patterns.

Irvine MA, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2016 Sep;13(122). pii: 20160463. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0463.


The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data.

Métras R, Cavalerie L, Dommergues L, Mérot P, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ, Cêtre-Sossah C, Cardinale E.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Jun 22;10(6):e0004783. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783. eCollection 2016 Jun.


The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control.

Brand SP, Rock KS, Keeling MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Apr 29;12(4):e1004837. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004837. eCollection 2016 Apr.


Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems.

Irvine MA, Jackson EL, Kenyon EJ, Cook KJ, Keeling MJ, Bull JC.

R Soc Open Sci. 2016 Mar 30;3(3):150519. doi: 10.1098/rsos.150519. eCollection 2016 Mar.


Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions.

Irvine MA, Bull JC, Keeling MJ.

Theor Popul Biol. 2016 Apr;108:70-4. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2015.12.001. Epub 2015 Dec 29.


Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.

Hollingsworth TD, Adams ER, Anderson RM, Atkins K, Bartsch S, Basáñez MG, Behrend M, Blok DJ, Chapman LA, Coffeng L, Courtenay O, Crump RE, de Vlas SJ, Dobson A, Dyson L, Farkas H, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Gurarie D, Irvine MA, Jervis S, Keeling MJ, Kelly-Hope L, King C, Lee BY, Le Rutte EA, Lietman TM, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Medley GF, Michael E, Pandey A, Peterson JK, Pinsent A, Porco TC, Richardus JH, Reimer L, Rock KS, Singh BK, Stolk W, Swaminathan S, Torr SJ, Townsend J, Truscott J, Walker M, Zoueva A; NTD Modelling Consortium.

Parasit Vectors. 2015 Dec 9;8:630. doi: 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1.


The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

Geard N, Glass K, McCaw JM, McBryde ES, Korb KB, Keeling MJ, McVernon J.

Epidemics. 2015 Dec;13:56-64. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.08.002. Epub 2015 Sep 2.


Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rock KS, Torr SJ, Lumbala C, Keeling MJ.

Parasit Vectors. 2015 Oct 22;8:532. doi: 10.1186/s13071-015-1131-8.


Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases.

Rock KS, Wood DA, Keeling MJ.

Epidemics. 2015 Sep;12:20-9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.006. Epub 2015 Mar 5.


Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy?

Keeling MJ, Ross JV.

Epidemics. 2015 Jun;11:7-13. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.002. Epub 2015 Jan 24. Review.


Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics.

Pellis L, House T, Keeling MJ.

J Theor Biol. 2015 Oct 7;382:160-77. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.04.039. Epub 2015 May 12.


Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases.

Brooks-Pollock E, de Jong MC, Keeling MJ, Klinkenberg D, Wood JL.

Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:1-5. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.005. Epub 2014 Aug 26.


Mathematical models of human african trypanosomiasis epidemiology.

Rock KS, Stone CM, Hastings IM, Keeling MJ, Torr SJ, Chitnis N.

Adv Parasitol. 2015 Mar;87:53-133. doi: 10.1016/bs.apar.2014.12.003. Epub 2015 Feb 11. Review.


Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

Brand SP, Tildesley MJ, Keeling MJ.

J Theor Biol. 2015 Apr 7;370:121-34. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.01.027. Epub 2015 Feb 4.


Testing the hypothesis of preferential attachment in social network formation.

House T, Read JM, Danon L, Keeling MJ.

EPJ Data Sci. 2015;4:13. Epub 2015 Oct 9.


Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set.

Hancock PA, Rehman Y, Hall IM, Edeghere O, Danon L, House TA, Keeling MJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Sep 11;10(9):e1003809. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003809. eCollection 2014 Sep.


A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain.

Brooks-Pollock E, Roberts GO, Keeling MJ.

Nature. 2014 Jul 10;511(7508):228-31. doi: 10.1038/nature13529. Epub 2014 Jul 2.


The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics.

Black AJ, House T, Keeling MJ, Ross JV.

J Theor Biol. 2014 Oct 21;359:45-53. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.05.042. Epub 2014 Jun 6.


The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States.

Buhnerkempe MG, Tildesley MJ, Lindström T, Grear DA, Portacci K, Miller RS, Lombard JE, Werkman M, Keeling MJ, Wennergren U, Webb CT.

PLoS One. 2014 Mar 26;9(3):e91724. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091724. eCollection 2014.


Dynamics of infectious diseases.

Rock K, Brand S, Moir J, Keeling MJ.

Rep Prog Phys. 2014;77(2):026602. doi: 10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602. Epub 2014 Jan 20. Review.


Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees.

Datta S, Bull JC, Budge GE, Keeling MJ.

J R Soc Interface. 2013 Sep 11;10(88):20130650. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0650. Print 2013 Nov 6.

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