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An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

Tian H, Liu Y, Li Y, Wu CH, Chen B, Kraemer MUG, Li B, Cai J, Xu B, Yang Q, Wang B, Yang P, Cui Y, Song Y, Zheng P, Wang Q, Bjornstad ON, Yang R, Grenfell BT, Pybus OG, Dye C.

Science. 2020 Mar 31. pii: eabb6105. doi: 10.1126/science.abb6105. [Epub ahead of print]


Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19.

Buckee CO, Balsari S, Chan J, Crosas M, Dominici F, Gasser U, Grad YH, Grenfell B, Halloran ME, Kraemer MUG, Lipsitch M, Metcalf CJE, Meyers LA, Perkins TA, Santillana M, Scarpino SV, Viboud C, Wesolowski A, Schroeder A.

Science. 2020 Mar 23. pii: eabb8021. doi: 10.1126/science.abb8021. [Epub ahead of print] No abstract available.


Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 U.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures.

Phillips MT, Owers KA, Grenfell BT, Pitzer VE.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Mar 18;14(3):e0008048. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008048. eCollection 2020 Mar.


Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data.

Kissler SM, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Gog JR.

J R Soc Interface. 2020 Mar;17(164):20190628. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0628. Epub 2020 Mar 18.


Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

Olson DR, Lopman BA, Konty KJ, Mathes RW, Papadouka V, Ternier A, Zucker JR, Simonsen L, Grenfell BT, Pitzer VE.

Sci Adv. 2020 Feb 26;6(9):eaax0586. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aax0586. eCollection 2020 Feb.


Population implications of the deployment of novel universal vaccines against epidemic and pandemic influenza.

Arinaminpathy N, Riley S, Barclay WS, Saad-Roy C, Grenfell B.

J R Soc Interface. 2020 Mar;17(164):20190879. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2019.0879. Epub 2020 Mar 4.


Accelerated viral dynamics in bat cell lines, with implications for zoonotic emergence.

Brook CE, Boots M, Chandran K, Dobson AP, Drosten C, Graham AL, Grenfell BT, Müller MA, Ng M, Wang LF, van Leeuwen A.

Elife. 2020 Feb 3;9. pii: e48401. doi: 10.7554/eLife.48401.


Epidemic dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in current and future climates.

Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Wagner CE, Yang W, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.

Nat Commun. 2019 Dec 4;10(1):5512. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13562-y.


Factors Associated With Measles Transmission in the United States During the Postelimination Era.

Gastañaduy PA, Funk S, Lopman BA, Rota PA, Gambhir M, Grenfell B, Paul P.

JAMA Pediatr. 2019 Nov 18. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2019.4357. [Epub ahead of print]


Measles vaccine immune escape: Should we be concerned?

Yang L, Grenfell BT, Mina MJ.

Eur J Epidemiol. 2019 Oct;34(10):893-896. doi: 10.1007/s10654-019-00574-7. Epub 2019 Nov 1. No abstract available.


Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

Becker AD, Wesolowski A, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Sep 12;15(9):e1007305. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007305. eCollection 2019 Sep.


Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading.

Cooper L, Kang SY, Bisanzio D, Maxwell K, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Greenhouse B, Drakeley C, Arinaitwe E, G Staedke S, Gething PW, Eckhoff P, Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI, Dorsey G, Kamya MR, Lindsay SW, Grenfell BT, Smith DL.

Nat Commun. 2019 Sep 2;10(1):3939. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y.


Response to Comment on "Long-term measles-induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease mortality".

Mina MJ, Grenfell BT, Metcalf CJE.

Science. 2019 Jul 12;365(6449). pii: eaax6498. doi: 10.1126/science.aax6498.


Measles and the canonical path to elimination.

Graham M, Winter AK, Ferrari M, Grenfell B, Moss WJ, Azman AS, Metcalf CJE, Lessler J.

Science. 2019 May 10;364(6440):584-587. doi: 10.1126/science.aau6299.


Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.

Niewiadomska AM, Jayabalasingham B, Seidman JC, Willem L, Grenfell B, Spiro D, Viboud C.

BMC Med. 2019 Apr 24;17(1):81. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1314-9.


Model diagnostics and refinement for phylodynamic models.

Lau MSY, Grenfell BT, Worby CJ, Gibson GJ.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Apr 5;15(4):e1006955. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006955. eCollection 2019 Apr.


Incentivizing hospital infection control.

Drohan SE, Levin SA, Grenfell BT, Laxminarayan R.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Mar 26;116(13):6221-6225. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1812231116. Epub 2019 Mar 11.


Dynamic Perspectives on the Search for a Universal Influenza Vaccine.

Saad-Roy CM, McDermott AB, Grenfell BT.

J Infect Dis. 2019 Apr 8;219(Supplement_1):S46-S56. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz044.


Modeling the measles paradox reveals the importance of cellular immunity in regulating viral clearance.

Morris SE, Yates AJ, de Swart RL, de Vries RD, Mina MJ, Nelson AN, Lin WW, Kouyos RD, Griffin DE, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Pathog. 2018 Dec 28;14(12):e1007493. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1007493. eCollection 2018 Dec.


Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: Lessons learnt in research and capacity building.

Nelson MI, Lloyd-Smith JO, Simonsen L, Rambaut A, Holmes EC, Chowell G, Miller MA, Spiro DJ, Grenfell B, Viboud C.

Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:116-127. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.10.004. Epub 2018 Oct 23. Review.


Impact and longevity of measles-associated immune suppression: a matched cohort study using data from the THIN general practice database in the UK.

Gadroen K, Dodd CN, Masclee GMC, de Ridder MAJ, Weibel D, Mina MJ, Grenfell BT, Sturkenboom MCJM, van de Vijver DAMC, de Swart RL.

BMJ Open. 2018 Nov 8;8(11):e021465. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-021465.


Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States.

Kissler SM, Gog JR, Viboud C, Charu V, Bjørnstad ON, Simonsen L, Grenfell BT.

Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:86-94. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.10.002. Epub 2018 Oct 10.


Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.

Dalziel BD, Kissler S, Gog JR, Viboud C, Bjørnstad ON, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.

Science. 2018 Oct 5;362(6410):75-79. doi: 10.1126/science.aat6030.


Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan.

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Arima Y, Fujimoto T, Shimizu H, Rogier van Doorn H, Le Van T, Chan YF, Farrar JJ, Oishi K, Grenfell BT.

J R Soc Interface. 2018 Sep 12;15(146). pii: 20180507. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0507.


Vaccination under uncertainty.

Lau MSY, Grenfell BT.

Nat Ecol Evol. 2018 Sep;2(9):1350-1351. doi: 10.1038/s41559-018-0652-x. No abstract available.


The decline of malaria in Vietnam, 1991-2014.

Goldlust SM, Thuan PD, Giang DDH, Thang ND, Thwaites GE, Farrar J, Thanh NV, Nguyen TD, Grenfell BT, Boni MF, Hien TT.

Malar J. 2018 Jun 7;17(1):226. doi: 10.1186/s12936-018-2372-8.


Analysis of multi-level spatial data reveals strong synchrony in seasonal influenza epidemics across Norway, Sweden, and Denmark.

Morris SE, Freiesleben de Blasio B, Viboud C, Wesolowski A, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT.

PLoS One. 2018 May 17;13(5):e0197519. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197519. eCollection 2018.


Impact of Public Health Responses During a Measles Outbreak in an Amish Community in Ohio: Modeling the Dynamics of Transmission.

Gastañaduy PA, Funk S, Paul P, Tatham L, Fisher N, Budd J, Fowler B, de Fijter S, DiOrio M, Wallace GS, Grenfell B.

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Sep 1;187(9):2002-2010. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy082.


Deploying digital health data to optimize influenza surveillance at national and local scales.

Lee EC, Arab A, Goldlust SM, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Bansal S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 Mar 7;14(3):e1006020. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006020. eCollection 2018 Mar.


The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers.

Pons-Salort M, Oberste MS, Pallansch MA, Abedi GR, Takahashi S, Grenfell BT, Grassly NC.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 20;115(12):3078-3083. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1721159115. Epub 2018 Mar 5.


Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission.

Dalziel BD, Lau MSY, Tiffany A, McClelland A, Zelner J, Bliss JR, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Jan 22;12(1):e0006161. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006161. eCollection 2018 Jan.


Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps.

Winter AK, Pramanik S, Lessler J, Ferrari M, Grenfell BT, Metcalf CJE.

Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Jan;146(1):65-77. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817002527. Epub 2017 Dec 4.


Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology.

Morris DH, Gostic KM, Pompei S, Bedford T, Łuksza M, Neher RA, Grenfell BT, Lässig M, McCauley JW.

Trends Microbiol. 2018 Feb;26(2):102-118. doi: 10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.004. Epub 2017 Oct 30. Review.


A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

Lau MSY, Gibson GJ, Adrakey H, McClelland A, Riley S, Zelner J, Streftaris G, Funk S, Metcalf J, Dalziel BD, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Oct 30;13(10):e1005798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005798. eCollection 2017 Oct.


Reducing antimicrobial use in food animals.

Van Boeckel TP, Glennon EE, Chen D, Gilbert M, Robinson TP, Grenfell BT, Levin SA, Bonhoeffer S, Laxminarayan R.

Science. 2017 Sep 29;357(6358):1350-1352. doi: 10.1126/science.aao1495. Epub 2017 Sep 28. No abstract available.


tsiR: An R package for time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered models of epidemics.

Becker AD, Grenfell BT.

PLoS One. 2017 Sep 28;12(9):e0185528. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185528. eCollection 2017.


Robust extraction of quantitative structural information from high-variance histological images of livers from necropsied Soay sheep.

Caudron Q, Garnier R, Pilkington JG, Watt KA, Hansen C, Grenfell BT, Aboellail T, Graham AL.

R Soc Open Sci. 2017 Jul 19;4(7):170111. doi: 10.1098/rsos.170111. eCollection 2017 Jul.


The impact of HCV therapy in a high HIV-HCV prevalence population: A modeling study on people who inject drugs in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Birger RB, Le T, Kouyos RD, Grenfell BT, Hallett TB.

PLoS One. 2017 May 11;12(5):e0177195. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177195. eCollection 2017.


The impact of migration and antimicrobial resistance on the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever in Kathmandu, Nepal: A mathematical modelling study.

Saad NJ, Bowles CC, Grenfell BT, Basnyat B, Arjyal A, Dongol S, Karkey A, Baker S, Pitzer VE.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2017 May 5;11(5):e0005547. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005547. eCollection 2017 May.


Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic.

Lau MS, Dalziel BD, Funk S, McClelland A, Tiffany A, Riley S, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Feb 28;114(9):2337-2342. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1614595114. Epub 2017 Feb 13.


Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

Charu V, Zeger S, Gog J, Bjørnstad ON, Kissler S, Simonsen L, Grenfell BT, Viboud C.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 10;13(2):e1005382. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382. eCollection 2017 Feb.


Opportunities and challenges of a World Serum Bank - Authors' reply.

Metcalf CJ, Mina MJ, Winter AK, Grenfell BT.

Lancet. 2017 Jan 21;389(10066):252. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30054-5. Epub 2017 Jan 20. No abstract available.


Universal or Specific? A Modeling-Based Comparison of Broad-Spectrum Influenza Vaccines against Conventional, Strain-Matched Vaccines.

Subramanian R, Graham AL, Grenfell BT, Arinaminpathy N.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Dec 15;12(12):e1005204. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005204. eCollection 2016 Dec.


Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico.

Mahmud AS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Feb;145(3):607-625. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816002673. Epub 2016 Nov 22.


Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics.

Becker AD, Birger RB, Teillant A, Gastanaduy PA, Wallace GS, Grenfell BT.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Dec 20;113(51):14595-14600. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1604976113. Epub 2016 Nov 21.


Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study.

Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Med. 2016 Oct 11;13(10):e1002144. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002144. eCollection 2016 Oct.


Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage.

Bharti N, Djibo A, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Ferrari MJ.

Sci Rep. 2016 Oct 5;5:34541. doi: 10.1038/srep34541.


Forecasting Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases.

Gandon S, Day T, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT.

Trends Ecol Evol. 2016 Oct;31(10):776-788. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2016.07.010. Epub 2016 Aug 24. Review.


Immunogenicity of a Meningococcal B Vaccine during a University Outbreak.

Basta NE, Mahmoud AA, Wolfson J, Ploss A, Heller BL, Hanna S, Johnsen P, Izzo R, Grenfell BT, Findlow J, Bai X, Borrow R.

N Engl J Med. 2016 Jul 21;375(3):220-8. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1514866.


High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds.

Pitzer VE, Aguas R, Riley S, Loeffen WL, Wood JL, Grenfell BT.

J R Soc Interface. 2016 Jun;13(119). pii: 20160138. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0138.

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