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Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach.

Routledge I, Lai S, Battle KE, Ghani AC, Gomez-Rodriguez M, Gustafson KB, Mishra S, Unwin J, Proctor JL, Tatem AJ, Li Z, Bhatt S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Mar 23;16(3):e1007707. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007707. [Epub ahead of print]


The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

Bretscher MT, Dahal P, Griffin J, Stepniewska K, Bassat Q, Baudin E, D'Alessandro U, Djimde AA, Dorsey G, Espié E, Fofana B, González R, Juma E, Karema C, Lasry E, Lell B, Lima N, Menéndez C, Mombo-Ngoma G, Moreira C, Nikiema F, Ouédraogo JB, Staedke SG, Tinto H, Valea I, Yeka A, Ghani AC, Guerin PJ, Okell LC.

BMC Med. 2020 Feb 25;18(1):47. doi: 10.1186/s12916-020-1494-3.


Power calculations for cluster randomized trials (CRTs) with right-truncated Poisson-distributed outcomes: a motivating example from a malaria vector control trial.

Mwandigha LM, Fraser KJ, Racine-Poon A, Mouksassi MS, Ghani AC.

Int J Epidemiol. 2020 Feb 3. pii: dyz277. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyz277. [Epub ahead of print]


Ivermectin as a novel complementary malaria control tool to reduce incidence and prevalence: a modelling study.

Slater HC, Foy BD, Kobylinski K, Chaccour C, Watson OJ, Hellewell J, Aljayyoussi G, Bousema T, Burrows J, D'Alessandro U, Alout H, Ter Kuile FO, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Smit MR.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;20(4):498-508. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30633-4. Epub 2020 Jan 13.


How delayed and non-adherent treatment contribute to onward transmission of malaria: a modelling study.

Challenger JD, Gonçalves BP, Bradley J, Bruxvoort K, Tiono AB, Drakeley C, Bousema T, Ghani AC, Okell LC.

BMJ Glob Health. 2019 Dec 10;4(6):e001856. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001856. eCollection 2019.


Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence.

McCormack CP, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM.

Commun Biol. 2019 Jul 25;2:273. doi: 10.1038/s42003-019-0525-0. eCollection 2019.


Impact of seasonal variations in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission on the surveillance of pfhrp2 gene deletions.

Watson OJ, Verity R, Ghani AC, Garske T, Cunningham J, Tshefu A, Mwandagalirwa MK, Meshnick SR, Parr JB, Slater HC.

Elife. 2019 May 2;8. pii: e40339. doi: 10.7554/eLife.40339.


Prioritizing the scale-up of interventions for malaria control and elimination.

Winskill P, Walker PG, Cibulskis RE, Ghani AC.

Malar J. 2019 Apr 8;18(1):122. doi: 10.1186/s12936-019-2755-5.


A trade-off between dry season survival longevity and wet season high net reproduction can explain the persistence of Anopheles mosquitoes.

Magombedze G, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC.

Parasit Vectors. 2018 Nov 3;11(1):576. doi: 10.1186/s13071-018-3158-0.


Modelling population-level impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines.

Hogan AB, Winskill P, Verity R, Griffin JT, Ghani AC.

BMC Med. 2018 Jul 13;16(1):109. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1095-6.


Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting.

Routledge I, Chevéz JER, Cucunubá ZM, Rodriguez MG, Guinovart C, Gustafson KB, Schneider K, Walker PGT, Ghani AC, Bhatt S.

Nat Commun. 2018 Jun 26;9(1):2476. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y.


Synergy in anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic and transmission-blocking antibodies is achieved by reducing parasite density.

Sherrard-Smith E, Sala KA, Betancourt M, Upton LM, Angrisano F, Morin MJ, Ghani AC, Churcher TS, Blagborough AM.

Elife. 2018 Jun 19;7. pii: e35213. doi: 10.7554/eLife.35213.


Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa.

Marshall JM, Wu SL, Sanchez C HM, Kiware SS, Ndhlovu M, Ouédraogo AL, Touré MB, Sturrock HJ, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM.

Sci Rep. 2018 May 16;8(1):7713. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26023-1.


Drug-Resistance and Population Structure of Plasmodium falciparum Across the Democratic Republic of Congo Using High-Throughput Molecular Inversion Probes.

Aydemir O, Janko M, Hathaway NJ, Verity R, Mwandagalirwa MK, Tshefu AK, Tessema SK, Marsh PW, Tran A, Reimonn T, Ghani AC, Ghansah A, Juliano JJ, Greenhouse BR, Emch M, Meshnick SR, Bailey JA.

J Infect Dis. 2018 Aug 14;218(6):946-955. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiy223.


Can improving access to care help to eliminate malaria?

Ghani AC.

Lancet. 2018 May 12;391(10133):1870-1871. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30910-3. Epub 2018 Apr 24. No abstract available.


Plasmodium falciparum genetic variation of var2csa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Verity R, Hathaway NJ, Waltmann A, Doctor SM, Watson OJ, Patel JC, Mwandagalirwa K, Tshefu AK, Bailey JA, Ghani AC, Juliano JJ, Meshnick SR.

Malar J. 2018 Jan 24;17(1):46. doi: 10.1186/s12936-018-2193-9.


The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

Winskill P, Slater HC, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, Walker PGT.

PLoS Med. 2017 Nov 21;14(11):e1002448. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002448. eCollection 2017 Nov.


Assessing the impact of imperfect adherence to artemether-lumefantrine on malaria treatment outcomes using within-host modelling.

Challenger JD, Bruxvoort K, Ghani AC, Okell LC.

Nat Commun. 2017 Nov 9;8(1):1373. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-01352-3.


Model citizen - Authors' reply.

Brady OJ, Slater HC, Pemberton-Ross P, Wenger E, Maude RJ, Ghani AC, Penny MA, Gerardin J, White LJ, Chitnis N, Aguas R, Hay SI, Smith DL, Stuckey EM, Okiro EA, Smith TA, Okell LC.

Lancet Glob Health. 2017 Oct;5(10):e974. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30338-8. No abstract available.


Modelling the drivers of the spread of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Watson OJ, Slater HC, Verity R, Parr JB, Mwandagalirwa MK, Tshefu A, Meshnick SR, Ghani AC.

Elife. 2017 Aug 24;6. pii: e25008. doi: 10.7554/eLife.25008.


Modelling the cost-effectiveness of introducing the RTS,S malaria vaccine relative to scaling up other malaria interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Winskill P, Walker PG, Griffin JT, Ghani AC.

BMJ Glob Health. 2017 Jan 24;2(1):e000090. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000090. eCollection 2017.


Role of mass drug administration in elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a consensus modelling study.

Brady OJ, Slater HC, Pemberton-Ross P, Wenger E, Maude RJ, Ghani AC, Penny MA, Gerardin J, White LJ, Chitnis N, Aguas R, Hay SI, Smith DL, Stuckey EM, Okiro EA, Smith TA, Okell LC.

Lancet Glob Health. 2017 Jul;5(7):e680-e687. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30220-6. Epub 2017 May 26.


Pfhrp2-Deleted Plasmodium falciparum Parasites in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A National Cross-sectional Survey.

Parr JB, Verity R, Doctor SM, Janko M, Carey-Ewend K, Turman BJ, Keeler C, Slater HC, Whitesell AN, Mwandagalirwa K, Ghani AC, Likwela JL, Tshefu AK, Emch M, Juliano JJ, Meshnick SR.

J Infect Dis. 2017 Jul 1;216(1):36-44. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiw538.


Mathematical Modelling to Guide Drug Development for Malaria Elimination.

Slater HC, Okell LC, Ghani AC.

Trends Parasitol. 2017 Mar;33(3):175-184. doi: 10.1016/ Epub 2016 Oct 7. Review.


Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study.

Walker PG, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC.

Lancet Glob Health. 2016 Jul;4(7):e474-84. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30073-0. Epub 2016 Jun 3.


Key traveller groups of relevance to spatial malaria transmission: a survey of movement patterns in four sub-Saharan African countries.

Marshall JM, Touré M, Ouédraogo AL, Ndhlovu M, Kiware SS, Rezai A, Nkhama E, Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Doumbia S, Govella NJ, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC.

Malar J. 2016 Apr 12;15:200. doi: 10.1186/s12936-016-1252-3.


Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

White MT, Shirreff G, Karl S, Ghani AC, Mueller I.

Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Mar 30;283(1827):20160048. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0048.


Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models.

Pothin E, Ferguson NM, Drakeley CJ, Ghani AC.

Malar J. 2016 Feb 9;15:79. doi: 10.1186/s12936-016-1121-0.


Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

Griffin JT, Bhatt S, Sinka ME, Gething PW, Lynch M, Patouillard E, Shutes E, Newman RD, Alonso P, Cibulskis RE, Ghani AC.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Apr;16(4):465-72. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00423-5. Epub 2016 Jan 20.


Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa.

Slater HC, Griffin JT, Ghani AC, Okell LC.

Malar J. 2016 Jan 6;15:10. doi: 10.1186/s12936-015-1075-7.


Provision of malaria treatment for Ebola case contacts.

Ghani AC, Walker PG.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Apr;16(4):391-2. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00481-8. Epub 2015 Dec 17. No abstract available.


Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies.

Slater HC, Ross A, Ouédraogo AL, White LJ, Nguon C, Walker PG, Ngor P, Aguas R, Silal SP, Dondorp AM, La Barre P, Burton R, Sauerwein RW, Drakeley C, Smith TA, Bousema T, Ghani AC.

Nature. 2015 Dec 3;528(7580):S94-101. doi: 10.1038/nature16040.


Comparison of diagnostics for the detection of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections to inform control and elimination strategies.

Wu L, van den Hoogen LL, Slater H, Walker PG, Ghani AC, Drakeley CJ, Okell LC.

Nature. 2015 Dec 3;528(7580):S86-93. doi: 10.1038/nature16039.


Evaluating the impact of pulse oximetry on childhood pneumonia mortality in resource-poor settings.

Floyd J, Wu L, Hay Burgess D, Izadnegahdar R, Mukanga D, Ghani AC.

Nature. 2015 Dec 3;528(7580):S53-9. doi: 10.1038/nature16043.


Expanding the role of diagnostic and prognostic tools for infectious diseases in resource-poor settings.

Ghani AC, Burgess DH, Reynolds A, Rousseau C.

Nature. 2015 Dec 3;528(7580):S50-2. doi: 10.1038/nature16038. No abstract available.


Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models.

Penny MA, Verity R, Bever CA, Sauboin C, Galactionova K, Flasche S, White MT, Wenger EA, Van de Velde N, Pemberton-Ross P, Griffin JT, Smith TA, Eckhoff PA, Muhib F, Jit M, Ghani AC.

Lancet. 2016 Jan 23;387(10016):367-375. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00725-4. Epub 2015 Nov 6.


Vaccine approaches to malaria control and elimination: Insights from mathematical models.

White MT, Verity R, Churcher TS, Ghani AC.

Vaccine. 2015 Dec 22;33(52):7544-50. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.099. Epub 2015 Oct 23. Review.


Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial.

White MT, Verity R, Griffin JT, Asante KP, Owusu-Agyei S, Greenwood B, Drakeley C, Gesase S, Lusingu J, Ansong D, Adjei S, Agbenyega T, Ogutu B, Otieno L, Otieno W, Agnandji ST, Lell B, Kremsner P, Hoffman I, Martinson F, Kamthunzu P, Tinto H, Valea I, Sorgho H, Oneko M, Otieno K, Hamel MJ, Salim N, Mtoro A, Abdulla S, Aide P, Sacarlal J, Aponte JJ, Njuguna P, Marsh K, Bejon P, Riley EM, Ghani AC.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Dec;15(12):1450-8. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00239-X. Epub 2015 Sep 2.


Seasonality in malaria transmission: implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cairns ME, Walker PG, Okell LC, Griffin JT, Garske T, Asante KP, Owusu-Agyei S, Diallo D, Dicko A, Cisse B, Greenwood BM, Chandramohan D, Ghani AC, Milligan PJ.

Malar J. 2015 Aug 19;14:321. doi: 10.1186/s12936-015-0839-4.


Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis.

Walker PG, White MT, Griffin JT, Reynolds A, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2015 Jul;15(7):825-32. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70124-6. Epub 2015 Apr 23.


Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure.

Griffin JT, Hollingsworth TD, Reyburn H, Drakeley CJ, Riley EM, Ghani AC.

Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Feb 22;282(1801):20142657. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2657.


Chronology of DIC technique based on the fundamental mathematical modeling and dehydration impact.

Alias N, Saipol HF, Ghani AC.

J Food Sci Technol. 2014 Dec;51(12):3647-57. doi: 10.1007/s13197-012-0913-7. Epub 2012 Dec 28.


Contrasting benefits of different artemisinin combination therapies as first-line malaria treatments using model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

Okell LC, Cairns M, Griffin JT, Ferguson NM, Tarning J, Jagoe G, Hugo P, Baker M, D'Alessandro U, Bousema T, Ubben D, Ghani AC.

Nat Commun. 2014 Nov 26;5:5606. doi: 10.1038/ncomms6606.


Modelling the contribution of the hypnozoite reservoir to Plasmodium vivax transmission.

White MT, Karl S, Battle KE, Hay SI, Mueller I, Ghani AC.

Elife. 2014 Nov 18;3. doi: 10.7554/eLife.04692.


Lead clinical and preclinical antimalarial drugs can significantly reduce sporozoite transmission to vertebrate populations.

Upton LM, Brock PM, Churcher TS, Ghani AC, Gething PW, Delves MJ, Sala KA, Leroy D, Sinden RE, Blagborough AM.

Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2015 Jan;59(1):490-7. doi: 10.1128/AAC.03942-14. Epub 2014 Nov 10.


Estimated risk of placental infection and low birthweight attributable to Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa in 2010: a modelling study.

Walker PG, ter Kuile FO, Garske T, Menendez C, Ghani AC.

Lancet Glob Health. 2014 Aug;2(8):e460-7. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70256-6. Epub 2014 Jul 23.


Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases.

Pinsent A, Read JM, Griffin JT, Smith V, Gething PW, Ghani AC, Pasvol G, Hollingsworth TD.

Malar J. 2014 Aug 4;13:298. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-298.


Transmission and control of Plasmodium knowlesi: a mathematical modelling study.

Imai N, White MT, Ghani AC, Drakeley CJ.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Jul 24;8(7):e2978. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978. eCollection 2014 Jul.


A combined analysis of immunogenicity, antibody kinetics and vaccine efficacy from phase 2 trials of the RTS,S malaria vaccine.

White MT, Bejon P, Olotu A, Griffin JT, Bojang K, Lusingu J, Salim N, Abdulla S, Otsyula N, Agnandji ST, Lell B, Asante KP, Owusu-Agyei S, Mahama E, Agbenyega T, Ansong D, Sacarlal J, Aponte JJ, Ghani AC.

BMC Med. 2014 Jul 10;12:117. doi: 10.1186/s12916-014-0117-2.

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