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Sci Adv. 2017 Dec 20;3(12):eaap7528. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aap7528. eCollection 2017 Dec.

Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop.

Author information

1
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
2
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
3
Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, IRD, Géoazur, Nice, France.
4
Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France.

Abstract

Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures.

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