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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Nov 19;116(47):23487-23492. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1907461116. Epub 2019 Nov 4.

Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges.

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Climate Analytics, 10969 Berlin, Germany;
Australian-German Climate & Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-5503.
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster, BT52 1SA Coleraine, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.
Climate Analytics, 10969 Berlin, Germany.
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany.


The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991-2030 (2016-2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.


Paris Agreement; emission pledges; sea-level rise

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