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The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: what might we expect?

Chowell G, Mizumoto K.

Lancet. 2020 Apr 4;395(10230):1093-1094. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30743-1. No abstract available.


Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea.

Shim E, Tariq A, Choi W, Lee Y, Chowell G.

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 18;93:339-344. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031. [Epub ahead of print]


Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020.

Mizumoto K, Chowell G.

Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 29;5:264-270. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003. eCollection 2020.


Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020.

Mizumoto K, Kagaya K, Zarebski A, Chowell G.

Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(10). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180.


Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020.

Mizumoto K, Chowell G.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 13;26(6). doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200233. [Epub ahead of print]


Getting to zero in the DR Congo Ebola outbreak.

Dhillon RS, Srikrishna D, Chowell G.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;20(4):395-397. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30056-6. Epub 2020 Mar 9. No abstract available.


Social Media Use in Emergency Response to Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review With a Public Health Perspective.

Muniz-Rodriguez K, Ofori SK, Bayliss LC, Schwind JS, Diallo K, Liu M, Yin J, Chowell G, Fung IC.

Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2020 Feb;14(1):139-149. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.3.


Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020.

Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R, Kirpich A, Rothenberg R, Hyman JM, Yan P, Chowell G.

Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 14;5:256-263. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.002. eCollection 2020.


Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020.

Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R, Kirpich A, Rothenberg R, Hyman JM, Yan P, Chowell G.

J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 22;9(2). pii: E596. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020596.


Mechanistic modelling of the large-scale Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016 to 2019.

Musa SS, Zhao S, Gao D, Lin Q, Chowell G, He D.

J Theor Biol. 2020 Feb 22;493:110209. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110209. [Epub ahead of print]


Real-time forecasting of epidemic trajectories using computational dynamic ensembles.

Chowell G, Luo R, Sun K, Roosa K, Tariq A, Viboud C.

Epidemics. 2019 Dec 21;30:100379. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100379. [Epub ahead of print]


Susceptibility to organophosphates pesticides and the development of infectious-contagious respiratory diseases.

Gutiérrez-Jara JP, Córdova-Lepe FD, Muñoz-Quezada MT, Chowell G.

J Theor Biol. 2020 Mar 7;488:110133. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110133. Epub 2019 Dec 20.


Vaccination strategies to control Ebola epidemics in the context of variable household inaccessibility levels.

Chowell G, Tariq A, Kiskowski M.

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 Nov 21;13(11):e0007814. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007814. eCollection 2019 Nov.


Mechanistic modelling of multiple waves in an influenza epidemic or pandemic.

Xu B, Cai J, He D, Chowell G, Xu B.

J Theor Biol. 2020 Feb 7;486:110070. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110070. Epub 2019 Nov 4.


Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019.

Mizumoto K, Tariq A, Roosa K, Kong J, Yan P, Chowell G.

Euro Surveill. 2019 Oct;24(42). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.42.1900588.


Comparative assessment of parameter estimation methods in the presence of overdispersion: a simulation study.

Roosa K, Luo R, Chowell G.

Math Biosci Eng. 2019 May 16;16(5):4299-4313. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019214.


Comparative analysis of phenomenological growth models applied to epidemic outbreaks.

Bürger R, Chowell G, Lara-Díıaz LY.

Math Biosci Eng. 2019 May 16;16(5):4250-4273. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019212.


A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves.

Chowell G, Tariq A, Hyman JM.

BMC Med. 2019 Aug 22;17(1):164. doi: 10.1186/s12916-019-1406-6.


On Stable Parameter Estimation and Forecasting in Epidemiology by the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm with Broyden's Rank-one Updates for the Jacobian Operator.

Smirnova A, Sirb B, Chowell G.

Bull Math Biol. 2019 Oct;81(10):4210-4232. doi: 10.1007/s11538-019-00650-9. Epub 2019 Jul 23.


Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.

Chowell G, Mizumoto K, Banda JM, Poccia S, Perrings C.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2019 Jun 24;374(1775):20180272. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0272.


Assessing reporting delays and the effective reproduction number: The Ebola epidemic in DRC, May 2018-January 2019.

Tariq A, Roosa K, Mizumoto K, Chowell G.

Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:128-133. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.01.003. Epub 2019 Feb 3.


A maximum curvature method for estimating epidemic onset of seasonal influenza in Japan.

Cai J, Zhang B, Xu B, Chan KKY, Chowell G, Tian H, Xu B.

BMC Infect Dis. 2019 Feb 20;19(1):181. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-3777-x.


Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal predator-prey model with infected prey.

Bürger R, Chowell G, Gavilán E, Mulet P, Villada LM.

Math Biosci Eng. 2018 Dec 17;16(1):438-473. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019021.


Prior dengue virus infection and risk of Zika: A pediatric cohort in Nicaragua.

Gordon A, Gresh L, Ojeda S, Katzelnick LC, Sanchez N, Mercado JC, Chowell G, Lopez B, Elizondo D, Coloma J, Burger-Calderon R, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Harris E.

PLoS Med. 2019 Jan 22;16(1):e1002726. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002726. eCollection 2019 Jan.


Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States.

Dahal S, Mizumoto K, Bolin B, Viboud C, Chowell G.

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1;187(12):2577-2584. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy146.


Fogarty International Center collaborative networks in infectious disease modeling: Lessons learnt in research and capacity building.

Nelson MI, Lloyd-Smith JO, Simonsen L, Rambaut A, Holmes EC, Chowell G, Miller MA, Spiro DJ, Grenfell B, Viboud C.

Epidemics. 2019 Mar;26:116-127. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.10.004. Epub 2018 Oct 23. Review.


Spatial infectious disease epidemiology: on the cusp.

Chowell G, Rothenberg R.

BMC Med. 2018 Oct 18;16(1):192. doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1184-6.


Assessing the relationship between epidemic growth scaling and epidemic size: The 2014-16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

Ganyani T, Roosa K, Faes C, Hens N, Chowell G.

Epidemiol Infect. 2018 Oct 15:1-6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268818002819. [Epub ahead of print]


Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

Cilek L, Chowell G, Ramiro Fariñas D.

Am J Epidemiol. 2018 Dec 1;187(12):2511-2523. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwy171.


Assessing inference of the basic reproduction number in an SIR model incorporating a growth-scaling parameter.

Ganyani T, Faes C, Chowell G, Hens N.

Stat Med. 2018 Dec 20;37(29):4490-4506. doi: 10.1002/sim.7935. Epub 2018 Aug 16.


A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm.

Smirnova A, Chowell G.

Infect Dis Model. 2017 May 25;2(2):268-275. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.05.004. eCollection 2017 May. Review.


Transmission potential of modified measles during an outbreak, Japan, March‒May 2018.

Mizumoto K, Kobayashi T, Chowell G.

Euro Surveill. 2018 Jun;23(24). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.24.1800239.


Differences in Transmission and Disease Severity Between 2 Successive Waves of Chikungunya.

Gordon A, Gresh L, Ojeda S, Chowell G, Gonzalez K, Sanchez N, Saborio S, Mercado JC, Kuan G, Balmaseda A, Harris E.

Clin Infect Dis. 2018 Nov 13;67(11):1760-1767. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy356.


Simple multi-scale modeling of the transmission dynamics of the 1905 plague epidemic in Bombay.

Pell B, Phan T, Rutter EM, Chowell G, Kuang Y.

Math Biosci. 2018 Jul;301:83-92. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.04.003. Epub 2018 Apr 16.


Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities.

Tian H, Hu S, Cazelles B, Chowell G, Gao L, Laine M, Li Y, Yang H, Li Y, Yang Q, Tong X, Huang R, Bjornstad ON, Xiao H, Stenseth NC.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 May 1;115(18):4707-4712. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1712767115. Epub 2018 Apr 17.


Introduction to symposium: a century after the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Chowell G, Sullivan P, Rothenberg R.

Ann Epidemiol. 2018 May;28(5):265-266. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.03.010. Epub 2018 Mar 23. No abstract available.


A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies.

Simonsen L, Chowell G, Andreasen V, Gaffey R, Barry J, Olson D, Viboud C.

Ann Epidemiol. 2018 May;28(5):281-288. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.02.013. Epub 2018 Mar 2.


Excess mortality patterns during 1918-1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA.

Dahal S, Jenner M, Dinh L, Mizumoto K, Viboud C, Chowell G.

Ann Epidemiol. 2018 May;28(5):273-280. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.12.005. Epub 2017 Dec 21.


We could learn much more from 1918 pandemic-the (mis)fortune of research relying on original death certificates.

Alonso WJ, Nascimento FC, Chowell G, Schuck-Paim C.

Ann Epidemiol. 2018 May;28(5):289-292. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.01.002. Epub 2018 Jan 9.


Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

Ramiro D, Garcia S, Casado Y, Cilek L, Chowell G.

Ann Epidemiol. 2018 May;28(5):267-272. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.12.009. Epub 2017 Dec 27.


Growth scaling for the early dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemics in Brazil and the influence of socio-demographic factors.

Dinh L, Chowell G, Rothenberg R.

J Theor Biol. 2018 Apr 7;442:79-86. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.12.030. Epub 2018 Jan 9.


Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A Primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts.

Chowell G.

Infect Dis Model. 2017 Aug;2(3):379-398. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.08.001. Epub 2017 Aug 12.


Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK.

Shanafelt DW, Jones G, Lima M, Perrings C, Chowell G.

Ecohealth. 2018 Jun;15(2):338-347. doi: 10.1007/s10393-017-1293-2. Epub 2017 Dec 13.


Numerical solution of a spatio-temporal gender-structured model for hantavirus infection in rodents.

Bürger R, Chowell G, Gavilán E, Mulet P, Villada LM.

Math Biosci Eng. 2018 Feb 1;15(1):95-123. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018004.


The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge special issue: Preface.

Viboud C, Simonsen L, Chowell G, Vespignani A.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:1-2. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.10.003. Epub 2017 Oct 24. No abstract available.


Infectious disease risks among refugees from North Korea.

Nishiura H, Lee H, Yuan B, Endo A, Akhmetzhanov AR, Chowell G.

Int J Infect Dis. 2018 Jan;66:22-25. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.10.021. Epub 2017 Nov 7. Review.


The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt.

Viboud C, Sun K, Gaffey R, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Merler S, Zhang Q, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Vespignani A; RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge group.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:13-21. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.002. Epub 2017 Aug 26.


The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation.

Ajelli M, Zhang Q, Sun K, Merler S, Fumanelli L, Chowell G, Simonsen L, Viboud C, Vespignani A.

Epidemics. 2018 Mar;22:3-12. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.09.001. Epub 2017 Sep 20.

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