THIS STUDY SOUGHT TO EVALUATE the ability of gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) elastase to predict attachment and bone loss in human periodontitis. Thirty subjects who were medically healthy and had a history of progressive periodontitis were studied with an automated probe. Five sites in each patient were monitored bi-monthly for a 6-month period for attachment loss. Subtraction radiography was utilized at the beginning and end of the study to monitor bone loss. GCF elastase was measured at 0 month and then bi-monthly by collecting GCF on paper strips impregnated with PMN leukocyte elastase substrate inserted into the gingival crevice for 15 seconds. After 8 minutes of reaction time, the strips were scored relative to fluorescent standards in an ultraviolet view box. Strips were then eluted in methanol and total elastase measured by spectrofluorometry. Total elastase was significantly higher in sites demonstrating progressive attachment loss than in inactive sites (2.81 +/- .29 versus 2.03 +/- .07, P less than 0.0005) and sites demonstrating bone loss (2.32 +/- .17 versus 2.01 +/- .08 P less than 0.05). When considering the joint presence of bone loss and attachment loss of 1.0 mm or greater in the 6-month period following a visual elastase kit score of 2 or greater, the test kit shows a sensitivity and specificity of 82% and 66%, respectively. This study demonstrated that GCF elastase levels are significantly higher in sites demonstrating progressive periodontal attachment and bone loss assessed 6 months later and may serve as a predictor of future bone and attachment loss.