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Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

Bhattacharyya S, Ferrari MJ, Bjørnstad ON.

Epidemics. 2017 Dec 14. pii: S1755-4365(17)30187-1. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005. [Epub ahead of print]


Differences in the population structure of Neisseria meningitidis in two Australian states: Victoria and Western Australia.

Mowlaboccus S, Mullally CA, Richmond PC, Howden BP, Stevens K, Speers DJ, Keil AD, Bjørnstad ON, Perkins TT, Kahler CM.

PLoS One. 2017 Oct 24;12(10):e0186839. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186839. eCollection 2017.


The geography of spatial synchrony.

Walter JA, Sheppard LW, Anderson TL, Kastens JH, Bjørnstad ON, Liebhold AM, Reuman DC.

Ecol Lett. 2017 Jul;20(7):801-814. doi: 10.1111/ele.12782. Epub 2017 May 26.


Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks.

Li SL, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Mummah R, Runge MC, Fonnesbeck CJ, Tildesley MJ, Probert WJM, Shea K.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 May 30;114(22):5659-5664. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1617482114. Epub 2017 May 15.


The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

Beck-Johnson LM, Nelson WA, Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB, Bjørnstad ON.

R Soc Open Sci. 2017 Mar 8;4(3):160969. doi: 10.1098/rsos.160969. eCollection 2017 Mar.


Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

Charu V, Zeger S, Gog J, Bjørnstad ON, Kissler S, Simonsen L, Grenfell BT, Viboud C.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 10;13(2):e1005382. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382. eCollection 2017 Feb.


Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.

Tian H, Yu P, Bjørnstad ON, Cazelles B, Yang J, Tan H, Huang S, Cui Y, Dong L, Ma C, Ma C, Zhou S, Laine M, Wu X, Zhang Y, Wang J, Yang R, Stenseth NC, Xu B.

PLoS Pathog. 2017 Jan 31;13(1):e1006198. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006198. eCollection 2017 Jan.


Timing and periodicity of influenza epidemics.

Bjørnstad ON, Viboud C.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Nov 15;113(46):12899-12901. Epub 2016 Nov 3. No abstract available.


Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites.

Greischar MA, Mideo N, Read AF, Bjørnstad ON.

Evolution. 2016 Jul;70(7):1542-58. doi: 10.1111/evo.12969. Epub 2016 Jun 24.


Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites.

Greischar MA, Mideo N, Read AF, Bjørnstad ON.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Feb 18;12(2):e1004718. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004718. eCollection 2016 Feb.


Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns.

Dalziel BD, Bjørnstad ON, van Panhuis WG, Burke DS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Feb 4;12(2):e1004655. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655. eCollection 2016 Feb.


Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed.

Gouveia AR, Bjørnstad ON, Tkadlec E.

Ecol Evol. 2015 Dec 17;6(1):212-8. doi: 10.1002/ece3.1863. eCollection 2016 Jan.


Cross-immunity between strains explains the dynamical pattern of paramyxoviruses.

Bhattacharyya S, Gesteland PH, Korgenski K, Bjørnstad ON, Adler FR.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Oct 27;112(43):13396-400. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1516698112. Epub 2015 Oct 12.


Serotype-Specific Transmission and Waning Immunity of Endemic Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cameroon.

Pomeroy LW, Bjørnstad ON, Kim H, Jumbo SD, Abdoulkadiri S, Garabed R.

PLoS One. 2015 Sep 1;10(9):e0136642. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0136642. eCollection 2015.


Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data.

Wesolowski A, Metcalf CJ, Eagle N, Kombich J, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Buckee CO.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Sep 1;112(35):11114-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1423542112. Epub 2015 Aug 17.


Nonlinearity and chaos in ecological dynamics revisited.

Bjørnstad ON.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 May 19;112(20):6252-3. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1507708112. Epub 2015 May 11. No abstract available.


Seven challenges in modeling vaccine preventable diseases.

Metcalf CJ, Andreasen V, Bjørnstad ON, Eames K, Edmunds WJ, Funk S, Hollingsworth TD, Lessler J, Viboud C, Grenfell BT.

Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:11-5. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.004. Epub 2014 Aug 27.


Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics.

Morris SE, Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Metcalf CJ, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT.

J R Soc Interface. 2015 Mar 6;12(104):20141245. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2014.1245.


Transport networks and inequities in vaccination: remoteness shapes measles vaccine coverage and prospects for elimination across Africa.

Metcalf CJ, Tatem A, Bjornstad ON, Lessler J, O'Reilly K, Takahashi S, Cutts F, Grenfell BT.

Epidemiol Infect. 2015 May;143(7):1457-66. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814001988. Epub 2014 Aug 14.


Spatial Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza in the US.

Gog JR, Ballesteros S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Bjornstad ON, Shaman J, Chao DL, Khan F, Grenfell BT.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Jun 12;10(6):e1003635. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003635. eCollection 2014 Jun.


Synchrony in malaria infections: how intensifying within-host competition can be adaptive.

Greischar MA, Read AF, Bjørnstad ON.

Am Nat. 2014 Feb;183(2):E36-49. doi: 10.1086/674357. Epub 2013 Dec 16.


The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

Beck-Johnson LM, Nelson WA, Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB, Bjørnstad ON.

PLoS One. 2013 Nov 14;8(11):e79276. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0079276. eCollection 2013.


Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough.

Metcalf CJ, Hampson K, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.

PLoS One. 2013 Sep 9;8(9):e74696. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074696. eCollection 2013.


Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics.

Lavine JS, King AA, Andreasen V, Bjørnstad ON.

PLoS One. 2013 Aug 26;8(8):e72086. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072086. eCollection 2013. Erratum in: PLoS One. 2014;9(1). doi:10.1371/annotation/5564cacb-8694-433f-991e-e1cc29a4f4bf.


Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability.

Nelson WA, Bjørnstad ON, Yamanaka T.

Science. 2013 Aug 16;341(6147):796-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1238477. Epub 2013 Aug 1.


Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers.

Haynes KJ, Bjørnstad ON, Allstadt AJ, Liebhold AM.

Proc Biol Sci. 2013 Jan 2;280(1753):20122373. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2012.2373. Print 2013 Feb 22. Erratum in: Proc Biol Sci. 2013 Mar 22;280(1755):20130112.


Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa.

Metcalf CJ, Cohen C, Lessler J, McAnerney JM, Ntshoe GM, Puren A, Klepac P, Tatem A, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.

J R Soc Interface. 2013 Jan 6;10(78):20120756. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0756.


Optimizing reactive responses to outbreaks of immunizing infections: balancing case management and vaccination.

Klepac P, Bjørnstad ON, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT.

PLoS One. 2012;7(8):e41428. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041428. Epub 2012 Aug 10.


Revealing mechanisms underlying variation in malaria virulence: effective propagation and host control of uninfected red blood cell supply.

Metcalf CJ, Long GH, Mideo N, Forester JD, Bjørnstad ON, Graham AL.

J R Soc Interface. 2012 Nov 7;9(76):2804-13. Epub 2012 Jun 20.


Sin Nombre hantavirus decreases survival of male deer mice.

Luis AD, Douglass RJ, Hudson PJ, Mills JN, Bjørnstad ON.

Oecologia. 2012 Jun;169(2):431-9. doi: 10.1007/s00442-011-2219-2. Epub 2012 Jan 5.


Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data.

Metcalf CJ, Lessler J, Klepac P, Morice A, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.

Theor Popul Biol. 2012 Dec;82(4):275-82. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.12.001. Epub 2011 Dec 9.


Generation separation in simple structured life cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth.

Yamanaka T, Nelson WA, Uchimura K, Bjørnstad ON.

Am Nat. 2012 Jan;179(1):95-109. doi: 10.1086/663201. Epub 2011 Nov 30.


Short-lived immunity against pertussis, age-specific routes of transmission, and the utility of a teenage booster vaccine.

Lavine JS, Bjørnstad ON, de Blasio BF, Storsaeter J.

Vaccine. 2012 Jan 11;30(3):544-51. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.11.065. Epub 2011 Nov 26.


Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number.

Metcalf CJ, Graham AL, Huijben S, Barclay VC, Long GH, Grenfell BT, Read AF, Bjørnstad ON.

Science. 2011 Aug 19;333(6045):984-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1204588.


Pathogens, social networks, and the paradox of transmission scaling.

Ferrari MJ, Perkins SE, Pomeroy LW, Bjørnstad ON.

Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2011;2011:267049. doi: 10.1155/2011/267049. Epub 2011 Mar 9.


Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure.

Lavine JS, King AA, Bjørnstad ON.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Apr 26;108(17):7259-64. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1014394108. Epub 2011 Mar 21.


Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica.

Long GH, Sinha D, Read AF, Pritt S, Kline B, Harvill ET, Hudson PJ, Bjørnstad ON.

PLoS Pathog. 2010 Dec 16;6(12):e1001224. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1001224.


Imperfect vaccine-induced immunity and whooping cough transmission to infants.

Lavine J, Broutin H, Harvill ET, Bjørnstad ON.

Vaccine. 2010 Dec 10;29(1):11-6. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.10.029. Epub 2010 Oct 27.


The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation.

Metcalf CJ, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Klepac P, Bharti N, Lopez-Gatell H, Grenfell BT.

Epidemiol Infect. 2011 Jul;139(7):1029-38. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810002165. Epub 2010 Sep 15.


Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru.

Metcalf CJ, Munayco CV, Chowell G, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.

J R Soc Interface. 2011 Mar 6;8(56):369-76. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0320. Epub 2010 Jul 21.


Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger.

Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Bharti N, Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON.

Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Sep 22;277(1695):2775-82. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.0536. Epub 2010 Apr 28.


Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity.

Bharti N, Djibo A, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Tatem AJ, McCabe CA, Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT.

Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Sep;138(9):1308-16. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809991385. Epub 2010 Jan 25.


The effect of seasonality, density and climate on the population dynamics of Montana deer mice, important reservoir hosts for Sin Nombre hantavirus.

Luis AD, Douglass RJ, Mills JN, Bjørnstad ON.

J Anim Ecol. 2010 Mar;79(2):462-70. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01646.x. Epub 2009 Dec 8.


Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics.

Mantilla-Beniers NB, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Rohani P.

J R Soc Interface. 2010 May 6;7(46):727-39. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0317. Epub 2009 Oct 14.


Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen.

Metcalf CJ, Bjørnstad ON, Grenfell BT, Andreasen V.

Proc Biol Sci. 2009 Dec 7;276(1676):4111-8. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.1058. Epub 2009 Sep 9.


Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example.

Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Grenfell BT, Bjørnstad ON.

Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Jan;138(1):108-16. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809990173. Epub 2009 Jun 19.


Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak.

Klepac P, Pomeroy LW, Bjørnstad ON, Kuiken T, Osterhaus AD, Rijks JM.

Proc Biol Sci. 2009 Jul 7;276(1666):2469-76. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.0175. Epub 2009 Apr 8.


Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off.

King AA, Shrestha S, Harvill ET, Bjørnstad ON.

Am Nat. 2009 Apr;173(4):446-55. doi: 10.1086/597217.

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