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Science. 2012 Oct 19;338(6105):344-8. doi: 10.1126/science.1225244.

Anticipating critical transitions.

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Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.

Erratum in

  • Science. 2012 Nov 23;338(6110):1029.


Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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