Stata Modules for Calculating Novel Predictive Performance Indices for Logistic Models

Background: Prediction is a fundamental part of prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The development of prediction algorithms based on the multivariate regression models loomed several decades ago. Parallel with predictive models development, biomarker researches emerged in an impressively great scale. The key question is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by new biomarkers or more basically how to assess the performance of a risk prediction model. Discrimination, calibration, and added predictive value have been recently suggested to be used while comparing the predictive performances of the predictive models' with and without novel biomarkers.

Objectives: Lack of user-friendly statistical software has restricted implementation of novel model assessment methods while examining novel biomarkers. We intended, thus, to develop a user-friendly software that could be used by researchers with few programming skills.

Materials and methods: We have written a Stata command that is intended to help researchers obtain cut point-free and cut point-based net reclassification improvement index and (NRI) and relative and absolute Integrated discriminatory improvement index (IDI) for logistic-based regression analyses.We applied the commands to a real data on women participating the Tehran lipid and glucose study (TLGS) to examine if information of a family history of premature CVD, waist circumference, and fasting plasma glucose can improve predictive performance of the Framingham's "general CVD risk" algorithm.

Results: The command is addpred for logistic regression models.

Conclusions: The Stata package provided herein can encourage the use of novel methods in examining predictive capacity of ever-emerging plethora of novel biomarkers.