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Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(10). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180.

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020.

Author information

1
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
2
Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
3
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
4
Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama, Japan.
5
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.

Abstract

On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections' timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI):ā€‰15.5-20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.

KEYWORDS:

COVID-19; Japan; asymptomatic; corona; outbreak; quarantine

[Indexed for MEDLINE]
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