Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis

Science. 2010 Nov 12;330(6006):982-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1194134.

Abstract

The epidemiology of whooping cough (pertussis) remains enigmatic. A leading cause of infant mortality globally, its resurgence in several developed nations--despite the availability and use of vaccines for many decades--has caused alarm. We combined data from a singular natural experiment and a detailed contact network study to show that age-specific contact patterns alone can explain shifts in prevalence and age-stratified incidence in the vaccine era. The practical implications of our results are notable: Ignoring age-structured contacts is likely to result in misinterpretation of epidemiological data and potentially costly policy missteps.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Age Distribution
  • Age Factors
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Health Policy
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs
  • Immunization, Secondary
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Interpersonal Relations*
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pertussis Vaccine
  • Prevalence
  • Sweden / epidemiology
  • Vaccines, Acellular
  • Whooping Cough / epidemiology*
  • Whooping Cough / prevention & control
  • Whooping Cough / transmission
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Pertussis Vaccine
  • Vaccines, Acellular