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PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Mar 15;12(3):e0006298. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298. eCollection 2018 Mar.

Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico.

Author information

1
RTI International, Washington, DC, United States of America.
2
Centre for Tropical Diseases, Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar, Verona, Italy.
3
Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaría de Salud Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
4
Health Systems Research Center, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
5
Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autonoma de Yucatan, Merida, Mexico.
6
Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America.
7
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America.
8
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States of America.
9
Secretaria de Salud de Yucatan. Merida, Mexico.
10
Subsecretaría de Prevención y Promoción de la Salud, Mexico City, Mexico.
11
Unidad Colaborativa de Bioensayos Entomológicos, Campus de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Merida, Mexico.
12
Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America.
13
Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
14
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
15
Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
16
Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America.

Abstract

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008-2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.

PMID:
29543910
PMCID:
PMC5870998
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

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