Trajectory assessment is useful when day-to-day esophageal acid exposure varies in prolonged wireless pH monitoring

Acid exposure time commonly varies from day-to-day in prolonged wireless pH monitoring. Thus, diagnosis based on the number of days with abnormal acid burden may be misleading or inconclusive. We hypothesize that assessing longitudinal patterns of acid exposure may be diagnostically useful. Therefore, this study aims to describe acid exposure trajectories and evaluate agreement between identified trajectory patterns and conventional grouping. In this retrospective cohort study, we assessed patients with nonresponse to proton pump inhibitor therapy who underwent wireless pH monitoring (≥72 h) off therapy between August 2010 and September 2016. The primary outcome was esophageal acid exposure time. Subjects were grouped as 0, 1, 2, and 3+ days positive based on number of days with an acid exposure time >5.0%. Latent class group-based mixture model identified distinct longitudinal acid exposure trajectory groups. Of 212 subjects included 44%, 18%, 14%, and 24% had 0, 1, 2, 3+ days positive, respectively. Group-based modeling identified three significantly stable acid exposure trajectories: low (64%), middle (28%), and high (8%). Trajectory grouping and days positive grouping agreed substantially (weighted K 0.69; 95% CI: 0.63-0.76). Trajectory grouping identified 62% of subjects with conventionally inconclusive studies (one or two days positive) into the low trajectory. Agreement between trajectory groups when using three versus four days of monitoring was substantial (K 0.70; CI: 0.61-0.78). In summary, we found that patients with nonresponse to proton pump inhibitors follow three acid exposure trajectories over prolonged pH-monitoring periods: low, middle, and high. Compared to conventional day positive grouping, the trajectory modeling identified the majority of inconclusive days positive into the low trajectory group. Analyzing prolonged wireless pH data according to trajectories may be a complimentary method to conventional grouping, and may increase precision and accuracy in identifying acid burden.