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Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Aug 7;14(8). pii: E885. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14080885.

The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability.

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Kotelnikov Institute of Radio engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 125009, Russian Federation.
Department of Environmental Physics and Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 157 72, Greece.
Kotelnikov Institute of Radio engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 125009, Russian Federation.


This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled "nature-society system (NSS) model", through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.


biochemical cycle; climate models; ocean; soil-plant formation; survivability-biocomplexity

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