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J Theor Biol. 2019 Apr 21;467:57-62. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.01.032. Epub 2019 Feb 6.

Risk management, signal processing and econometrics: A new tool for forecasting the risk of disease outbreaks.

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Research Institute of Energy Management and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address:
Department of Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address:
Fashion Business School, London College of Fashion, University of the Arts London, London, UK. Electronic address:
Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran. Electronic address:


This paper takes a novel approach for forecasting the risk of disease emergence by combining risk management, signal processing and econometrics to develop a new forecasting approach. We propose quantifying risk using the Value at Risk criterion and then propose a two staged model based on Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis and Quantile Regression (MSSA-QR model). The proposed risk measure (PLVaR) and forecasting model (MSSA-QR) is used to forecast the worst cases of waterborne disease outbreaks in 22 European and North American countries based on socio-economic and environmental indicators. The results show that the proposed method perfectly forecasts the worst case scenario for less common waterborne diseases whilst the forecasting of more common diseases requires more socio-economic and environmental indicators.


Disease; Forecasting; Multivariate singular spectrum analysis; Outbreaks; Quantile regression; Value at risk


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