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Energy Res Soc Sci. 2018 Oct;44:411-418. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2018.03.013. Epub 2018 Apr 16.

Terrorism, geopolitics, and oil security: Using remote sensing to estimate oil production of the Islamic State.

Author information

1
Research Department, The World Bank, United States.
2
Politics Department, Princeton University, United States.
3
Earth Observation Group, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, United States.
4
Middle East and North Africa Chief Economist's Office, The World Bank, United States.
5
Johns Hopkins University SAIS and Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. Department of State, United States.
6
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, United States.
7
Economics Department, Brown University, United States.
8
Payne Institute, Colorado School of Mines, United States.

Abstract

As the world's most traded commodity, oil production is typically well monitored and analyzed. It also has established links to geopolitics, international relations, and security. Despite this attention, the illicit production, refining, and trade of oil and derivative products occur all over the world and provide significant revenues outside of the oversight and regulation of governments. A prominent manifestation of this phenomenon is how terrorist and insurgent organizations-including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh-use oil as a revenue source. Understanding the spatial and temporal variation in production can help determine the scale of operations, technical capacity, and revenue streams. This information, in turn, can inform both security and reconstruction strategies. To this end, we use satellite multi-spectral imaging and ground-truth pre-war output data to effectively construct a real-time census of oil production in areas controlled by the ISIL terrorist group. More broadly, remotely measuring the activity of extractive industries in conflict-affected areas without reliable administrative data can support a broad range of public policy and decisions and military operations.

PMID:
30467534
PMCID:
PMC6241310
[Available on 2019-10-01]
DOI:
10.1016/j.erss.2018.03.013

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