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Stat Sci. 2018 Feb;33(1):57-69. doi: 10.1214/17-STS636. Epub 2018 Feb 2.

Modeling and inference for infectious disease dynamics: a likelihood-based approach.

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Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, 1085 South University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1107.


Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration.


Lévy-driven stochastic differential equation; compartment model; continuous-time Markov chain; environmental stochasticity; iterated filtering; maximum likelihood; particle filter

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