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Bull Math Biol. 2015 Feb;77(2):368-89. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9934-x. Epub 2014 Mar 12.

Dynamics and forecast in a simple model of sustainable development for rural populations.

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Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019, Sesto Fiorentino, Italy,


Society is becoming more conscious on the need to preserve the environment. Sustainable development schemes have grown rapidly as a tool for managing, predicting and improving the growth path in different regions and economy sectors. We introduce a novel and simple mathematical model of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in order to obtain a dynamical description for each one of the sustainability components (economy, social development and environment conservation), together with their dependence with demographic dynamics. The main part in the modeling task is inspired by the works by Cobb, Douglas, Brander and Taylor. This is completed through some new insights by the authors. A model application is presented for three specific geographical rural regions in Caldas (Colombia).

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