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J Surg Oncol. 1976;8(5):437-45.

Screening random asymptomatic women under 50 by annual mammographies: does it make sense?


The effectiveness of screening random asymptomatic women for breast cancer using mammography has been analyzed using a new mathematical-computer technology. The technology is based on a general mathematical theory of screening recently developed by Blumenson combined with a mathematical model for breast cancer developed by Blumenson and Bross over the past decade. The technology makes it relatively simple to try alternative strategies for age at onset of screening, screening interval, etc. and to calculate the relative effectiveness of the strategy. When the benefits of alternative strategies with periodic screening beginning at different ages were compared with the increasing risk of iatrogenic disease from multiple exposure to low levels of radiation, it was concluded that screening of asymptomatic women should begin no earlier than age 50.

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