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Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1998 Dec;26(6):361-71.

Caries prediction: a review of the literature.

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  • 1Restorative Dentistry, University of Washington, Seattle 98126, USA.


For over a decade researchers have been looking for the formula that will allow caries prediction. The purpose of this summary is to review recent multifactorial prediction models for adults and children with the aim of identifying the most successful and consistent methods. Conclusions from this review include the following: Clinical variables, especially past caries experience, are confirmed as the most significant predictors of future caries development. The status of the most recently erupted/exposed surface is the most successful measure of past caries experience. Bacterial levels are included in the most accurate prediction models. Sociodemographic variables are most important to caries prediction models for young children and older adults.

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