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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998 Nov 10;95(23):13881-6.

Modeling the impact of global tuberculosis control strategies.

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Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard School of Public Health, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.


An epidemiological model of tuberculosis has been developed and applied to five regions of the world. Globally, 6.7 million new cases of tuberculosis and 2.4 million deaths from tuberculosis are estimated for 1998. Based on current trends in uptake of the World Health Organization's strategy of directly observed treatment, short-course, we expect a total of 225 million new cases and 79 million deaths from tuberculosis between 1998 and 2030. Active case-finding by using mass miniature radiography could save 23 million lives over this period. A single contact treatment for tuberculosis could avert 24 million cases and 11 million deaths; combined with active screening, it could reduce mortality by nearly 40%. A new vaccine with 50% efficacy could lower incidence by 36 million cases and mortality by 9 million deaths. Support for major extensions to global tuberculosis control strategies will occur only if the size of the problem and the potential for action are recognized more widely.

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