Background: This study sought to define clinical predictors of survival in patients under consideration for heart transplantation and demonstrate possible improvements in the prediction of outcome when considering the identified predictors in addition to peak oxygen consumption. Peak oxygen consumption is currently the most important criterion for determining the timing and appropriateness of heart transplantation in ambulatory patients.
Methods: To identify other possible predictors of survival in patients with heart failure, we reviewed clinical, exercise, and radionuclide ventriculographic data on 112 patients referred for heart transplantation evaluation. Predictors of 1-year (n = 86) and overall (n = 112) survival to the combined end point of freedom from death or pretransplantation admission for inotropic or mechanical support were identified in multivariate analysis.
Results: The mean age was 51+/-9 years, and the mean duration of follow-up was 408+/-366 days. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 0.22+/-0.07, and the mean peak oxygen consumption was 12.3+/-3.7 ml/min/kg. Age (odds ratio 1.087, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.021 to 1.157), percentage of the maximum predicted heart rate at peak exercise (odds ratio 0.958, 95% CI 0.924 to 0.992), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (odds ratio 1.019, 95% CI 1.006 to 1.033) were independent predictors of the 1-year combined end point.
Conclusion: Age, heart rate at peak exercise, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index are independent predictors of prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure and may provide additional prognostic information for the risk-stratification of potential heart transplant recipients.