Format

Send to

Choose Destination
Health Serv Res. 1997 Feb;31(6):723-37.

Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: the Health Resources and Services Administration's physician requirements model.

Author information

1
Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Health Professions, Rockville, MD 20857, USA.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

The Health Resources and Services Administration's Bureau of Health Professions developed a demographic utilization-based model of physician specialty requirements to explore the consequences of a broad range of scenarios pertaining to the nation's health care delivery system on need for physicians.

DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING:

The model uses selected data primarily from the National Center for Health Statistics, the American Medical Association, and the U.S. Bureau of Census. Forecasts are national estimates.

STUDY DESIGN:

Current (1989) utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient medical specialty services were obtained for the population according to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and insurance status. These rates are used to estimate specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to physician requirements by applying per-physician productivity estimates.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS:

Secondary data were analyzed and put into matrixes for use in the mainframe computer-based model. Several missing data points, e.g., for HMO-enrolled populations, were extrapolated from available data by the project's contractor.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:

The authors contend that the Bureau's demographic utilization model represents improvements over other data-driven methodologies that rely on staffing ratios and similar supply-determined bases for estimating requirements. The model's distinct utility rests in offering national-level physician specialty requirements forecasts.

PMID:
9018213
PMCID:
PMC1070155
[Indexed for MEDLINE]
Free PMC Article

Supplemental Content

Full text links

Icon for PubMed Central
Loading ...
Support Center