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Gesundheitswesen. 1995 Oct;57(10):674-9.

[The Lee-Carter model of the prognosis of mortality in Germany. Berlin Public Health Research Group--partial project "Goals and Goal Indicators for Public Health in East and West Berlin"].

[Article in German]

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Robert Koch-Institut, Bundesinstitut für infektiöse und nicht übertragbare Krankheiten, Bereich Tempelhof, Berlin.


A model for forecasting mortality developed by Lee and Carter is applied to data of West Germany. The logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved mortality index using the singular value decomposition method. The forecasts are based on projections of all individual trends of the mortality rates. Applied to life expectancy at birth between 1969 and 1992 the model implies an increase of 2.2 years in life expectancy for men and 2.4 years for women in 2002.

[Indexed for MEDLINE]

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