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Am J Hypertens. 1993 Nov;6(11 Pt 2):309S-313S.

Coronary artery disease prediction.

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  • 1Framingham Heart Study, MA 01701.


The factors age, gender, cigarette-smoking, blood cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure, left ventricular hypertrophy, and diabetes mellitus have been used in the Framingham Heart Study for the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) in a middle-aged cohort of 2590 women and 2983 men aged 30 to 74 years at baseline. During 12 years of follow-up, there were 385 cases of CAD among men (12-year incidence of 5% at ages 30 to 39, rising to 26% at ages 70 to 74), and 241 cases among women (12-year incidence of 1% at ages 30 to 39, rising to 20% at ages 70 to 74). This review includes examples of the calculation of risk factor estimates from logistic regression equation output, discusses the role of attributable risk, provides information concerning the applicability of risk factor estimates to other populations, and contrasts the factors responsible for the occurrence of CAD with those that are important in other vascular diseases such as stroke.

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