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Ann Surg. 1981 Oct;194(4):447-57.

Prognostic factors in bile duct carcinoma: analysis of 96 cases.


A computerized analysis of prognostic variables was performed in 96 proven cases of extrahepatic bile duct carcinoma treated over a 24-year period at UCLA. Forty-nine percent of the lesions were in the upper third of the bile ducts and 47% of these were resected, for an operative mortality rate of 23% and a maximum survival rate of 4.5 years. Palliative procedures in this region were associated with a 16% mortality rate and maximum survival rate of three years. The patients whose lesions were in the middle third suffered no operative mortality rate for resection or palliation and had a 12% five-year survival rate, with the longest survivor lasting 11 years. In the lower third lesions, 67% were resected by Whipple's procedures, for an 8% mortality rate and a five-year survival rate of 28% extending to nine years. Resection of these difficult carcinomas offers the best hope of survival but must be weighed against the high operative mortality risk in those lesions located in the hilar region.

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