Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts

Demography. 1983 May;20(2):235-48.

Abstract

Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Demography*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Retirement
  • Statistics as Topic*
  • United States